HALLOWEEN GOBLINS STRIKE MARKET & BROKER

First, a quick post from a discussion last evening, discussing a sell off watch for this week:

[22:03] <CM> a look at this week: YM 12250-11901 nq 2412-2355 es 1281.5-1272 (typo actual 1252) tf 775-736


We had reasons to believe a sell off would hit, and it did.  Then MF Global locks everyone out, and seeks protection under bankruptcy law.  Normally. put you order where you see the trade, profit and stops in place, watch the chart for confirmation or to adjust the order.  Price hits on the chart and your happy; wait no order !  What??????????.  Happy Halloween, goblins strike early.  A great day turns into watch from the side.

Disclaimer, any and all trade references this evening are hypothetical as real trades were restricted.

We had two bear channels today. one from the pre-open and one for Rth traders from B1.  PA eventually BO late in the day only to fail at the middle BOT and reversed back into the channels.

The day was used to practice the buy-sell signals.  The market bias was bearish since we could not break the middle BOT.  The first area of interest was the PA stall at 1262 just below the short BOT.  A buy hit on B5, and was reversed  at B13.  The next sell was at B29 and reversed at B38.

The next point was very interesting.  A short signal (S+ type) was given at B46-47.  This short ended in a MAXT at B48-49, and was followed by a short (S- type) at B53-54.  This flip in the short signaled a market reversal and PA pressed past the SB for a BO5, BO10, and BO15 run.

More will be  reporting on these S+/- and L+/- set ups.

RANGE BOUND DAY

We were up late in the evening playing the ES, and had a 7 point run   1277.5 was the target being discussed, and it remained important today for the US Market.  PA stay close to that level, setting the tone for a range bound day.

TLs indicated a bullish bias at the open.  Longs were favored until the reversal short at the 1277.5.  A rising TL at B5 was used to project a wedge developing.  BOs were used for long positions.  For those more conservative, the 1277.5 was available and we discussed waiting for the first pullback to go long in leg 2.

The earlier wedge forecast TL was extended, and PA returned to the TL and the 50CB level.  The balance of the day was long bias.  The + runs were shared today in the chats as a benefit to other traders.  For the blog, they are removed.  Have a great weekend.


BIG PICTURE

TRADE DAY

BULLY

HERE Bully Bully Bully.

Got a text message from some company touting their services.  It reads, " DJIA skyrockets 340 points to top 12000...."  Guess they agree with out blog post earlier in the week looking for the 12000.  This from the same people that were all but saying the sky was falling when the sell off hit earlier.  Again, our readers were in the know and used the information to profit, not run scared!



BULLY DAY

Early sell off captured back to the BOT Range in the pre-market.  A strong hold by the Mid BOT was worthy of a long.  The PA stalled in the middle of the day, and was a BO long.

A pair of MAXT Reversals rounded out the trade day.

LET THE MARKET TALK

Yesterday, we were discussing sell off lows, and ES was at 1218.  Today, DING!  Hit and reversal.



[08:36] <CM> nice spike bar 8:30-8:35 est  
[08:37] <CM> used to trap orders in   now covering sends pa lower
[08:38] <CM> once out of the way  pros will move pa higher


[09:21] <CM> and like that, a nice +7 run x all
[09:42] <CM> before the reversal  :) 



[10:57] <CM> at 1218 an area of interest for the bull discussed y-day 

[11:01] <CM> reversal prospect at 1218
[11:02] <CM> 1222 key to ct reversal..
[11:03<CM> need at least 1 touch of ema 




The market opened with a nice BO long (BOTs removed today).  BO5 hit, then the market stalled.  Another short indicator was the failure of bars 3-5 to break the 50CB.  CB is the control bar (B2).  The bull needed to break that 50%.  The EMA short ran for +8 when a wedge began to develop.  It was expected to be a trend continuation BO.

PA moved to the 1218 area and stalled.  B18 was the entry (generally at base of control bar) or you would wait for the CB level at 1222 for a run to the EMA.  Since 1218 was hit, the larger wedge was bullish, and price was expected to BO long.

[12:44] <CM> last look meeting in the PM 1218 was reversal point discussed y-day. we are currently in a larger wedge (smaller prior was bo) larger will BO also bias long near term 1239-40 

BRUISED BULL (BUT EXPECTED)

A reminder from the evening of the 23rd, when prices were much lower.

[21:38] <CM> 1250 2350 12000 within reason for bulls. Everything except the kitchen sink was thrown at this market, and it still favors the bull, which means continue to look long and keep an eye out for a surprise Dow 3-400 sell off this week.


Some scoffed, some snickered, but they do not read charts the way I do.  We got the 1250 and the 2350.  YM hit 11880 (120 off) then sold off to 11620 (actual 260, or 380 with the 120 miss).  Fuzzy math, but then the market is fuzzy to many now.

Today, the focus was on shorts.  A short BOT BO, EMA resistance, a bull channel, and a pennant that broke to the continuation side.

two charts tonight, hopefully to direct your attention to key areas that often allows new entries in a dominant trend.

SOME THOUGHTS TODAY:


[09:50] <CM> first pb  es b3-4  ema failure would look for more selling
[09:50] <CM> nq too
[09:51] <CM> YM  roughly 880 to 680 is 200 of the "look for" potential dow sell off of 3-400

NEWS PLAY


[09:58] <CM> 2mins til news release to the masses  :)
[09:59] <CM> bracket  long 1238.75  short 1235.5
[10:00] <CM> +2 out

MORE EARLY THOUGHTS

[10:11] <CM> downside risk to mkt bull TF  705-710  NQ  2335  ym  11635    es  1218    buyers can enter at any time to distort  but this would be worst case to longer term support






CHARTS

EMA failed to go into the Upper Trading Range UTR) which is the Long BOT +.  PA stalled at the LB and reversed to the opposite target.  The Short BOT BO ran for the targeted +5  +10  +15 levels.

Note the Bull Channel that developed  inside a pennant.  Market broke to the continuation side for another +10, a target we discussed in the chat.

YOUR NOT A SUBSCRIBER

For those that are not subscribers, you missed the BOT Ranges and the BO Levels.  This chart is for you.  There are additional areas that can support a trade entry.

From left to right:   LB Reversal; SBBO; 50CB and EMA failure; Channel FBO; Pennant FBO; then EMA resistance and a MAXT.

BULLY

Last evening we commented about the nature of this bull.

[21:38] <CM> 1250 2350 12000 within reason for bulls. Everything except the kitchen sink was thrown at this market, and it still favors the bull, which means continue to look long and keep an eye out for a surprise Dow 3-400 sell off this week. 




The bull was quick to deliver the ES 1250 and the NQ 2350, and falling short of the YM 12000 (for Monday at least) by about 120 points.  But not bad, considering it was around 11720 when the comment was released.

The US open was in a bull channel and holding at the lower channel line and the Mid BOT, with a 50CB at the EMA.  GREEN LIGHT.  LONG!  The LBBO 10 later hits 1250 and a flatness for the exits.

A secondary push followed by a bearish channel ended the trading day.

LOOKING AHEAD BY REVIEWING THE PAST

Small chat today, just the pic of the day and a review of past post.  Some things ring true over and over.

SOME THOUGHTS FROM THE PAST

BOTS WITH BUY - SELL TRACKER

Few words tonight, letting the charts do the talking.  Skipping the subscriber release tonight to focus on the importance of the BOTs, and a secondary tool being developed: the Buyer-Seller Tracker.

 If a new leg up develops, go for the 5/10 variety as we could see some profit selling.  Some of the ranges get people back in the "black" and they are likely to get some cash/ flip holdings.

WEEK OF 10/10/2011

There are no fundamental changes to suggest the bull can continue.  Greece is and will remain a problem, but who does not have financial skeletons?  The Euro will remain.  Europe without the Euro has proven to be a bigger fear than the financial issues with the Euro.  But markets are always looking at the future.  Not what is happening today.

The bull ES has 3 targets that need to be tested.  Two have been hit, and we are at one of the targets.  The targets are:  1161.25,   1166, and 1171.5.  I'm thinking the October surprise came early.  The surprise this year is a return to higher ground.  The issue for the bull:  The daily ranges of many markets (including the ES) are at the top of a bearish biased channel, and there is always the risk of a rollover.  But given a break out, the 4th quarter becomes very bullish for new yearly highs.

Quick thoughts tonight, it's the weekend.  Another excellent BOT week and day.

Buyers were entering this A.M. after the range release.  7:40 -7:45 EST (hour earlier today) was coming off the SB for ES.  15 points (20 today) later the market hits an early HOD.  Those waiting on their Rth charts missed out.  

RANGE- BREAK OUT - RANGE

PA was in range at the release of the BOTs to the subscribers.  A range reversal run followed by the BO 10/15 variety made the day seem over.  But wait, the bull was still alive for a tremendous reversal long back into the range.

A double top, as we ended where we started.

BEAR CHANNEL INSIDE RANGES

The ranges were set and it began to look like a range bound day.  Then we noted the bearish channel inside the ranges.  Options:  play the channel at a key range and look for the BO that could cause a quick flip in your position, or wait for a range BO.

Part of the talk today:


[11:54] <CM> we still have range bound  LB for es and nq not broken


[12:41] <CM> both in a narrow bearish channel from b10-11  waiting for a bo
[12:42] <CM> nq more b16-17
[12:43] <CM> shorts would be es 1217.25     nq 2340.75


ES

NQ

LONG BIAS DAY

GET IT HERE FIRST!


[09:31] <CM> at the open  es + lb   nq between lb/mb
[09:32] <CM> long bias day for the mkt  but will play reversal sell offs 


The BOTs were set.  Subscribers knew PA had held at the Short in the pre-open and ran the range for a LBBO.   The reversal came at the open for the short, then a MAXT hit on the ES and the NQ around bars 7-8. A second, higher MAXT sealed the longs.  A long bias day in the BO 15 20 variety,


Get the news first, become a subscriber,  Don't wait for others to copy our information in their blogs!

ES

NQ

At end of the day, the PA had ran some +30 and exits near the HOD were suggested,


[15:13] <CM> bo 30 for the long biased day...
[15:20] <CM> x longs 23.25   2362

IF YOU CAN NOT MAKE MONEY WITH THE BOTs, YOU SHOULD NOT BE TRADING.

NEWS STILL SELLS

Go back in the blog post.  We talked about how Greece would not go away, however it would be resolved.  All looked good going into the Euro zone market then the comment (paraphrased)  " We will have a solution but not by..."  Market over confidence shattered, so take some profit. (we discussed this too.  Investors getting back to a plus will take profit and reorganize their holdings).

To understand today, you had to look at the global picture.  The market PA went below the EMA around 5:30 AM EST.  If you prefer the rth charts, you would see PA at the lower range and showing weakness.  Either way, it was a sell day with an early MAXT and the EMA acting as resistance.

For our subscribers, the failure to break the upper range followed by the EMA cross of the MB and the lower range, provided more support for holding short for the BO10 15 variety.

BOTS WITH BUY - SELL TRACKER

Few words tonight, letting the charts do the talking.  Skipping the subscriber release tonight to focus on the importance of the BOTs, and a secondary tool being developed: the Buyer-Seller Tracker.  First, a few conversations, then the charts.


[09:58] <CM> reversals at 1190.25  689.6    2300.25
[10:10] <CM> b6-8 lows buyer support  early entries welcomed  but priors are less risk
[10:12] <CM> target  93.5  1196





[13:54] <b> if mkt fell straight through 1202-1198 Y, will it go straight through it the other way today?
[13:56] <CM> yes  pros have +10 banked  resist below 1200






[14:33] <CM> 94-96 +2 pop
[14:34] <CM> es ranges today  1196-1193.25-1189.75


[14:56] <CM> rising ema + lb  had to long in the last hour on those pops from the ema
[14:58] <CM> from the 10am reversal  1190.25-1200    689.6-695.5    2300.25-2320 



ES TODAY:

BOTs with the Buy-Sell tracker hitting at the support/resistance lines.




NQ TODAY:

TF TODAY:

10/12 OVERNIGHT BOTs

The BOTs  were valuable again in the after hours for the US, and the open for Asian and the Euro Zones.

Sellers at the LB, buyers at the SB.

Stop trying to figure it out. It's not important.  The importance is in  Accepting, and Applying.

DAY H&S GOOD FOR BOTS

AM RELEASE:  Over night bullish run off the BOT Range.  Currently selling inside the new range, stalling at the mid BOT.  With a strong bull bias,  I would not expect a break of the SB, but then that would be the surprise move.  Simply play what is offered and don't try to "guess".  If a new leg up develops, go for the 5/10 variety as we could see some profit selling.  Some of the ranges get people back in the "black" and they are likely to get some cash/ flip holdings.  Ranges good until next calculation.




ES      1202.75    1200.25    1196


NQ     2316.5       2311.75    2306


TF        692.8       691.8    689.8


YM      11455       11436      11403


6E         3794         3774        3740






After the BOT range was released, we saw a buy bounce at the SB for a long of the range run, only to find sellers at the Long BOT.  At the US open, PA had settled at the MB and close to the EMA.  At this point your in the middle of the buy sell groups, but looking at a slightly long bias.  At 1198.5 area (support)  you have a downside risk of 2.5 (the SB)  and an upside potential of +4.

The longs won, and the EMA remained strong for most of the day.  Most PBs were the MAXT/50CB variety in the early trading, with new entry available at the trend line or EMA as the PA hit BO5 and BO10.  We discussed longs (buying) around B54 and 55, with exits at 57.  Was not the HOD exits, but then we are not trying to capture every penny.  Too often, those that stay begin to pay.

Another PM MAXT/50  and a sell off range run to finish the day in an elongated H&S pattern.  An open to close dud, but we play the BOTs, and they prevailed.

another look at the overnight (see AM post)

ES TODAY

10/11/11 FOLLOW UP

BOTs   24 hours.............................

PA hugged the LB and had a break long.  Buyers returned at the LB ans sent market higher for the two exits.

BULLS HOLD, BOTS WIN (AGAIN)

AM RELEASE:  Euro remains the news, and we have a 4 point range in the ES.  Reversals will run as the "news wind" blows.   BO5 and 10 will be key for ES,  15/20 for the NQ.

ES   1186.25    1183.75    1182.25

NQ   2272.5     2268.75     2266

YM   11342    11331    11304

TF    679.8    677.5    674.4

6E    3611    3598    3578

Sharing charts tonight to highlight key points, so few words!  Yeah.  The BOT ranges are used 24 hours until a new set is calculated.  Most people are getting that a BO tends to run 5/10 to 10/15+.  When PA trades in a more restrictive range is the question.  For now, we continue to look for runs.

The next important trading factor is to look for common entries across the markets.  Money enters ALL in a relatively short bar range.  Knowing when money moves in or out becomes a valuable tool for the BOTs.

 
ES-NQ-TF.  Similar buying, BOT support (remember the BOTs come first, then market PA), and selling.

AND, how it worked in the chat room today:

[14:31] <CM> 41  46  53
[14:31] <CM> longs at tl reversal


[14:34] <CM> it is at ema too
[14:37] <CM> 1190.5  2289  684.1  11352
[14:38] <CM> these are longs  if this treading water breaks back to the upside and returns inside the bull channel

[14:43] <CM> 46 buyers
[14:44] <CM> es 87.5-88.5 long  upside 92.5  dn side lb at 86

[15:06] <CM> ding ding   :)
[15:07] <CM> ok 92.25  close enough...
[15:09] <CM> 14:37 post longs paid too


92.5 hit..........  Another terrific day.

POST RELEASE REVIEW

Normally, this is where  the daily ranges given to our subscribers would be posted, then follow with a review of the day.  Due to an error in the format for the screen shots, I decided to add some of the screen shot in a special blog, and released the BOT Ranges early for  everyone.  With 100s of visits per day, hopefully some you used the data to profit in a great trading day.

If you missed it, this is a copy of "10/9" blog, and the US market update:

There are no fundamental changes to suggest the bull can continue.  Greece is and will remain a problem, but who does not have financial skeletons?  The Euro will remain.  Europe without the Euro has proven to be a bigger fear than the financial issues with the Euro.  But markets are always looking at the future.  Not what is happening today.

The bull ES has 3 targets that need to be tested.  Two have been hit, and we are at one of the targets.  The targets are:  1161.25,   1166, and 1171.5.  I'm thinking the October surprise came early.  The surprise this year is a return to higher ground.  The issue for the bull:  The daily ranges of many markets (including the ES) are at the top of a bearish biased channel, and there is always the risk of a rollover.  But given a break out, the 4th quarter becomes very bullish for new yearly highs.

6E    looking for 3414   3495   3534.  Longer term, 3691

NQ   2228.25    2258   2284

REVISED FOR THE US MARKET:     7:05 am  est

ES         1171    1168    1165.75

NQ        2232     2228.75      2225.75

YM       11206    11178       11166

TF        667.8       666.5    665.1

6E        3589        3565      3539

CHECK THE RANGES, CHECK WHAT THE MARKETS HIT.  BOTs WORK.  Got to love the newsletter crowd that-at the end of the day- tell you DJIA soars 300 points.  Would be nice to have a "road map" before the trade day starts.....

NQ

 

ES

 

WEEK OF 10/10/2011

There are no fundamental changes to suggest the bull can continue.  Greece is and will remain a problem, but who does not have financial skeletons?  The Euro will remain.  Europe without the Euro has proven to be a bigger fear than the financial issues with the Euro.  But markets are always looking at the future.  Not what is happening today.

The bull ES has 3 targets that need to be tested.  Two have been hit, and we are at one of the targets.  The targets are:  1161.25,   1166, and 1171.5.  I'm thinking the October surprise came early.  The surprise this year is a return to higher ground.  The issue for the bull:  The daily ranges of many markets (including the ES) are at the top of a bearish biased channel, and there is always the risk of a rollover.  But given a break out, the 4th quarter becomes very bullish for new yearly highs.

6E    looking for 3414   3495   3534.  Longer term, 3691

NQ   2228.25    2258   2284




REVISED FOR THE US MARKET:     7:05 am  est


ES         1171    1168    1165.75

NQ        2232     2228.75      2225.75

YM       11206    11178       11166

TF        667.8       666.5    665.1

6E        3589        3565      3539

TECH APOLOGY

JUST noticed the "new" copy & paste method did not allow screen shots to be enlarged.  They should be inserted.  Here are some recent screen shots.

Again, my apology.  The subscribers have nodded OK, to give a special Monday release of the BOT Ranges.  We will do a Euro Zone and US version.

Enjoy these pics, and the free gift of the Ranges for my mistake.

Up, down, or range bound.  BOTs track professional moves.  Get your subscription today!

A short alert was also given on last bull bar before the EOD sell off...

NARROW RANGES = EXPANDED BREAK OUTS

AM RELEASE:  ALERT marrow range day.  We will see (should see) powerful BOs news or not.  Entries for range runs will be quick to profit, as will reversals.  If you miss the first opportunity, wait for a PB.   We could have wild swings associated with the BOs.

ES       1156      1154.75    1153

NQ      2202.25     2200    2196.25

YM      11057     11015       11000

TF        668.9     667      664.5

6E      3440       3420      3403



Quick thoughts tonight, it's the weekend.  Another excellent BOT week and day.

Buyers were entering this A.M. after the range release.  7:40 -7:45 EST was coming off the SB for ES.  15 points later the market hits an early HOD.  Those waiting on their Rth charts missed out.  They saw selling at the open running into B4.  We saw a bearish channel, that continued to B50 area.

We had some fun in the chat today with "educational" long/short calls and followup exits.

[09:49] <CM> buy alert  59.5  2206  666.5

Exits were 5-6 minutes later.

[14:22] <CM> nice bull run

[14:22] <CM> es nq range reversals

[14:26] <CM> x longs   

[14:26] <CM> 1156  2206 660 area

[14:29] <CM> may not be the very top but close enough to capture most of the run

[15:07] <CM> nq in a wedge from b58

[15:31] <CM> excellent bo of the wedge

[15:35] <CM>chart post

[16:01] <CM> like that sell line  see last chart pic   :)


TODAY