COMMITTING TO THE CALL 7/31/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

READING  the market is the first step to finding the PA that will work in your favor.  When the reads and the PA work, you become more committed to the trade.  Committing builds trust.

No BOT levels today, no paragraphs you need a dictionary to understand.   Just a read that was shared with others to make a tremendous trade.


Some are coming around, and after today's trading they want to be serious about the future.  We will see where that road goes...




 [06:56] <CM> today's watch: are bulls committed? on the 60m es we see 2 rather large maxt recently and pa is in an ascending triangle. on the daily we have a large untested 50cb which will allow bulls to gain a better expansion entry around 1370  (chart deleted) 5m players will watch for a move at the open with a likely deep reversal move





The bulls were not; and some devoured them....

MARKET GOES WHERE "LIKELY" SUGGESTS 7/30/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

 The market was in a range run going into the US Open,  A narrow range.  B1 was an extended bull at the start.  Other markets were showing weakness, and a continuation was suspect.  The PB allowed better entries near the Long BOT, with  EMA buyers liking 1380-80.5, and BOT players at 1381.5-1382.25 the 50CB levels for B1 and B2.  Either way, the target was the BO5.

It would be nice to say we have a good read on the market and where it is going.  OK , it has been said.  But since this is educational only, you will see "likely".  Likely has been very good, and was good today.

The BO5 was considered a watch as bulls were having difficulty:

[09:40] <CM> tight range at open gut they will bring it 

[09:53] <CM> bot 101 if a range bo fails/stalls look for run to opposite ..     DID

[09:58] <CM> 84.5 target 1      HIT
[09:58] <CM> lbbo5
[10:02] <CM> you got ema long  the 50cb range was slightly higher 

[10:02] <CM> both should get the 84.5      DID

[12:25] <CM> reversal back to range per am suggestion      DID

[12:29] <CM> now time for lunch expecting range bound if sb holds likely new test of b1-b2 50cb area       DID
[12:30] <CM> essentially from pre open to current a H&S pattern

[13:38] <CM> t1 sellers ouch
[13:39] <CM> stp to 79.5
[13:40] <CM> sometimes pa just wants to be difficult..
[13:43] <CM> out and now going to lunch  play safe in the street..
[13:45] <CM> sellers were stronger at T1  likely test sb  77.25 and possible bo this time..

HIT THE SB.

BOT BLAST OFF TOWARD +20 7/28/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

 Fantastic!  Traders who watched the PA, listen to the comment, and played the Wednesday trade.  Their theme song comes from Toby Keith: "How do you like me now!".......

[15:51] <CM> late for today but longer term long holds 1331.5-32 765.5 2542 12610 areas and the current look 30m chart  (chart removed)





TODAY

WHETHER you took the conservative Long BOT (1365.75) or the aggressive (1364.5) it was a nice trading day for bulls.


Shared early AM before the open..


[08:48] <CM> nice hits early for key bot levels






B2 held for the bear attempt to sell, and the market responded in a bull triumph:  a grand break out.

A very nice end, to a very nice week.

A MAXT DAY FOR SHORTS; SUPPORT FOR BULLS 7/25/12

AT the pre open we saw a bullish tone to the market.  It was the preference until PA painted another picture.  That picture came at the MAXT B2-3 setup.

[09:15] <CM> today watch for a bullish day  key longer term levels and triple push is in the 46-48 area and former maxt  resistance on the 60m charts  open targets  1341.25-1338.75-1335.25

A preference is OK, but a PA signal should not be ignored.  The MAXT at the mid level and the EMA (and a recent high in pre market) was a lower risk short that ran to the SB5 and stalled.  One more push by the bears and longs regained popularity on B19, where traders should begin to consider a pull back to the SB, and a range run to the opposite BOT level at the LB.  This was OK until an ascending triangle in the B50 area developed.  Normally, this is a watch for a trend continuation BO higher, albeit they can fail.  A closer look reveals a clue.  PA is at the Mid range and the prior MAXT: a strong resistance dual.

[14:49] <CM> watch b64 65  developing now..  ascending triangle from b50 area  top is those resist dt's posted earlier

A nice short back to the SB, where PA found a longer term support, and key levels to consider.

[15:51] <CM> late for today but longer term long holds 1331.5-32 765.5 2542 12610 areas


[16:00] <CM> hope someone added those longs ;)

RANGE RUN BO AT THE OPEN 7/24/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

TODAY was a range run break out day from the open.  A selling TL ran from B1 to B45 where we see the next selling signal.  As Pa continued the sell off, the EMA was repeatedly tested and held the bulls in check.  mid way down the TL we say a MAXT  reversal.  In this case, a failed run by bulls at the EMA, a continuation of the bear trend.

A late rally stalled and we had a massive control bar (CB) of nearly 10 points.

 
Additional commentary can be found on Mirc at #Chartmaster

BOT 101: RANGE BOUND RANGE RUN DAY 7/23/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

BOT 101: when a break out at 5 points fails, expect a pullback to the BO level followed by a range run to test the opposite BOT level.  In a range bound day, PA will be contained by the BO5 levels.

Well, at least that is what we had today.  The SB5 held and we saw across the markets buy signals at the B5 and B10 double bottom base.


[10:17] <CM> b5 signals across 5m mkts
[10:18] <CM> putting in a base roughly 1333 771.4 2548 12535


[10:39] <CM> per bot-o-tology  a fbo of sb5 likely  to see range pb to sb  range run to lb 42.25  we end up with a range bound day..


And so it was...

SELLING CHANNEL TO +10 LEVEL 7/20/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

WHEN we look at yesterday's sellers, their support level dropped.  When we look at buyers, their support level stayed constant.  When that support broke, PA  drifted lower in a bearish channel to the SB10.

The channel offered both buys and sells.  Only the B16 buy signaled across the other markets and this was shared in the chat room:

  [10:41] <CM> s/w pa from 8am est  h's and l's  61-65 range  expiration day    another tight range to play..  next entry must be signal across all mkts..

[10:48] <CM> b16 1:4  1 of 4
[10:50] <CM> 2:4
[10:50] <CM> b17 3:4
[11:04] <CM> back at t1

The long ran back to the T1 (target 1) for the exit.  The last respectable long as PA pushed down another 5 points and entered a narrow trading range to end the day and week.

RANGE BOUND DAY: BOT +/- 2 POINTS 7/19/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


THE story  is about watching a professional walk across Niagara Falls on a tightrope.  Over and back, over and back with no problems.  Then he goes over and back with a wheel barrow.  Then asks you to get in the wheel barrow....


Watching is paper trading.  Good for the mechanics, how to use the tools.  But  not even close to the ride in the wheel barrow, where it gets real; the risk and the reward.


Get in.  Focus on your charts, the PA entry and exit strategies. not the dom frantically trying to take every order.  Play the chart, not the +/- in the dollar window.


****************************************************************************


Today was a range bound day, and was noted as such early.   Also noted that today was likely a +/- 2 points from key levels (the BOT).  No fancy quotes from the chat room tonight.  If you want the information, join us on Mirc at #Chartmaster.


Instead, here is the chart with notes added.  T1 and T2 were targets for trades.  Tight trading days are contracting in nature and will be more difficult to play than break out expansion days.  Difficult, but profitable........

MARKET BUY SIGNALS BEFORE THE NEWS 7/18/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM                                Mirc chat   #Chartmaster


EARNINGS Reports continue positive and Housing flashed a surprised improvement.  Well, when rates are at all time lows, positive news should kick in sooner or later.

Interestingly, the BOT System flashed buys around 8:50 AM EST across all markets, and we were at a BOT support.  Signal and support:  you do not have to twist my arm very much to act!.  Similar to yesterday we had a a large move at the open as PA pushed toward the LB5.


Special note:  to streamline terms, Long Bot Break Out (LBBO-5) will now be referred to as LB5, LB10, etc.  Breaks of the Short Bot will be recorded as SB5, SB10, etc.


The market information was posted in #Chartmaster:


[09:12] <CM> 1357 to 52.75 since mid euro zone trading  looking for a long bias going into us open   52.75-54.75
[09:14] <CM> 8:50 am est buy signals across mkts
[09:18] <CM> short interest at 52.25  outside the buy range



B1 offered a PB into the buy range, and the PB at B3-4 offered add-on or new longs.


[09:30] <CM> b1 pb in bullish trend
[09:35] <CM> and opening trade is completed  http://screencast.com/t/g8wyjy6dMh
[09:36] <CM> http://screencast.com/t/3fUyOO1r
[09:47] <CM> long taking exits 58.75-59.75
[09:53] <CM> the pb was your opportunity for a new long..
[09:53] <CM> t=62.5


The target was set at 1362.5 for exit consideration.  The LB10 was at 1364.5.


We had a 50CB TL develop off B5 that was a LB5 BO bar.  That bullish TL was the support behind longs to the LB15 where PA stalled and was considered an extended run for the day.

[11:37] <CM> 80 later  about maxed for today (name deleted)  1369-70 upper reach  stalling here as you noted  

The TL was key here.  We had PA stalling at a BOT level and a TL reversal would run back to the prior level as a minimum (theory in BOTs).


[12:33] <CM> lb15 seems to be stalling and we do have signals across the mkts  but I'm reading this as long exits, not shorts entering.  again, the TL is the better option


[12:59] <CM>  if you extend the TL  pa TL and ema are about to meet..  a bo likely to pb to prior level 64.5 area  :)


At the end of the day we see another buy signal at a key level that was exited at new highs.

BOT RANGE RUN IN AN INVERTED H&S 7/17/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM                  find us on Mirc at #Chartmaster


TODAY the chart has a new twist: longer term BOT levels (multi-day) and the daily BOT levels.  Slight differences today, and a watch for future trading.

 Some notes on trading today as key areas were discussed to help traders decide on possible entries.  Actual entry advice can not be given, only "educational" discussions of market conditions.

[10:12] <CM> gm all  introducing a new term long term bot v day bot   LT-5  and SB-5  close  exits here for the shorts  entered earlier at LB  TL and SB  (link deleted)

Shorts had numerous opportunities:  the stalled LBBO, the break of the TL, the range reversal, and the SB itself.

[10:12] <CM> the LT is something I'm working on ie multi day bot levels
[10:14] <CM> 47.5 lower risk long
[10:15] <CM> bulls need to test 50cb of b7  roughly 49.5
[10:15] <CM> buyers around 45.5 b7-9
[10:16] <CM> also 50cb level approx area pa hits ema (estimate)

The 50CB area is an important level for bo's and failures that continue the prior trend.

[10:18] <CM> we also have +10 from the highs at 56-56.5
[10:19] <CM> 46.5 prime long  at sb-5  (actual SB-5 was 46.75)
[10:19] <CM> that is your long range entry points

[10:29] <CM> tight stop out of trade  (link deleted)
[10:30] <CM> and the chart view  (link deleted)
[10:31] <CM> if we count this as a 50cb fbo  pa should continue down  thus the importance of the tl's

[10:35] <CM> if you like bracket trading  L49 S-45  short target the bo-10  41.5-42.5
[10:35] <CM> it keeps you out of the thrashing
[10:37] <CM> correction sb-10 is 41.75
[10:40] <CM> ok fbo 50cb correct  (call) here is the LT-10 AND SB-10  EXIT WAS slightly higher to guarantee the trade (link deleted)

[11:04] <CM> playing the reversal  (link deleted)

[11:05] <CM> target prior buyers around 45-45.5 (link deleted)

1[11:11] <CM> txk (name deleted)  that "tightening" at the 15 level made me think pa was restricted to run much lower  and even so had tight stop  the reversal at the 10 level looks  like the reversal pattern yday  push bar w tail a reversal bar with a tail and a signal flashing

[11:12] <CM> also a failure (fbo or a stall) at the 10 level often reverses to the 5 level

[11:37] <CM> ema bo all lower risk longs

[11:39] <CM> 49-49.5 prior 50cb we were working  should hit  second target the sb 51.75

[11:41] <CM> sb-5  46.75    LT-5 47.5
[11:42] <CM> b26 close lower risk long

[11:47] <CM> first target exits

[11:50] <CM> could, thinking more up  b28-29 entries for the 50cb bo

[12:02] <CM> inverted H&S working (link deleted)

[12:17] <CM> mkt overview:  about +15 dn from the stalled lbbo at the open  pa ran the range and hit a sbbo  to +5  +10.  at the +10 we saw a reversal pattern developing for long considerations  upper target set and hit

[12:22] <CM> this close bulls want a test of the high  t1 56 t2  57.75  (target 1 & 2)
[12:23] <CM> day range w/b sb10 to lb5


LT5 and LB5 both hit as anticipated.

Another fine day for traders..

RANGE RUNS AFTER A SB-5 REVERSAL 7/16/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

NEW BOT Rangers were provide last evening that were still valid at the US Open.  We quickly had a Short  scenario at the Short BOT (SB) for an anticipated 5 point run to the SBBO-5 level, or SB-5.


Buyers were noted, and an advisory was released:

 [09:50] <CM> longer term time frames we are still sideways  we are looking at a pb to 42  a short +5 from the sb
[09:54] <CM> the issue is weak pa just below the prior lows  seeing this as a fbo reversal
[09:56] <CM> b5  cont trend and was a fbo rev attempt  bo-5 still target
[09:58] <CM> two targets  42.5 and 42  slight difference in pa calculations  current v longer term
[10:04] <CM> b7 buyers    sh stop to 45.75
[10:06] <CM> the target is unchanged but the buy strength was unknown  so move stop just about prior push  max profit in sh run  and get out if a bottom reversal

[10:08] <CM> b8 additional buyers noted  these can be exits at/near the bo-5  this is important to note  perhaps the sb5 will bottom and reverse

Well, PA did reverse and the PB was to the SB=EMA=PA and prior lows.  Next advisory, a range run was expected.

[10:30] <CM> pa got back to prior lows and ema  the expectation will be a range run  counting the pa at/near bo5 as a reversal
[11:01] <CM> target numbers  for longs  52-52.75  overnight bots 51.25-49.75-47.25  we continue to play in the lower part of the range

Two trade styles were presented: a well cap account and a moderate account.  You should develop a trading plan at 1-2 C's, then work your way up as you become successful.  Do not go ALL IN until 1) you trade the best trades consistently and 2) you get out of non performing trades with minimum risk exposure.

BULLISH READ, PA DELIVERS 7/13/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

 EARLIER in the week we were discussing that 32.5 was a long hold.  The level worked, and PA drove lower for better entries.

[22:20] <CM> the 32.25 lows converted to a +4 we now have a HL in play bulls will want 40-41 then another try on 1350

We hit lows and PA rose later for a range run and a LBBO.

  [22:02] <CM> after the stall at sbbo-5  we saw the range run  we should see attempt overnight on the lbbo-5  1337

The PA did hit the 1337 in overnight trading, and the following analysis was provided this morning in chat.

  [08:07] <CM> they had 4 attempts at lbbo-5  1337  also note  a 5t fail of the lb at 1332 longs has hit twice in the last 3 hours  bias still long

[08:07] <CM> also the lb is acting like the neckline of a h&s pattern

Then the break out was explained, including what an extended day would be.

  [08:23] <CM> from the bo point pa is expected to run +5  to +10  extended days +20

We got the extended day today!

The Long BOT was being a magnet for the PA.  We only had two potential stop outs over the prior two hours.  The market was preparing for a new long target.

[08:27] <CM> 1337 is lbbo-5   1332 is the lb  they had 2 5t hits to take out longs over last 4 hours  (the risk of going long at 1332)

[08:29] <CM> so if you longed at 3am or 3:45 est  the 5t hit   if long at 4:30  you almost hit the +5
[08:30] <CM> btw  42.5 47.5 next bull targets

[09:24] <CM> (x)  we had 2 hours of s/w action 2am to 4:30 bo  pa is bouncing around the LB  read:  mkt prep for a new run higher  but note the micro bear tl (channel) we are in

[09:28] <CM> also  note all mkts just flashed buys near lows

[09:37] <CM> there you go  +5     http://screencast.com/t/TfkGpTxizzZ

The next entry (or first if the open was not taken) would be a quality Pull Back.  We got that at B4-5.

[09:48] <CM> the next buy would be a quality pb

[09:49] <x> what's a quality pb? What makes it quality?
[09:49] <CM> 50cb of last bull bar..

This was around 40.25 for the long play in a rising market..  Mid day, so time for the beach, and a final note:

[12:49] <CM> enough fun for today  have a great weekend all  time for the beach..
[12:52] <CM> mid day s/w action  look for a pb this pm to prior level the bo-10 42 area  next bull target 52.75  so 10 point pm range

We got the 52.75.  A very nice bull day back to earlier targets.  A nice end to the week and vacation..

SHORT BO 5 WITH A RANGE REVERSAL 7/12/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

WHEN we see a stalling  (or a FBO) at a BO-5 level, it is the tendency of PA to reverse and run the range.  Opinion, but it works very well.  We we a little discouraged with the bulls.  They did hit the 40-41 area but sold off again to lower levels.

[08:47] <CM> we can "wish & hope" with opinions "bulls want to test 40-41 then the next level 1350" but PA action will always be king cont selling inside bot levels until mkt breaks trend 


The trend was  seen in PA from the prior day, and while the 1350 was optimistic, it was non the less a multi-day target.  But there is a trend.

 The trend developed at that FBO level and was pushing lower crossing range BOT levels.  Optimistically, new daily BOT were established when  we noticed a bullish tone to the pre open PA,


[09:12] <CM> us open levels  1332-1329-1324.75
[09:12] <CM> bias is long at open


PA was in a range run and had an opportunity to bounce at the Short BOT.  Instead, it ran the BOT at B3 for a test of the SBBO-5.  The stalling at the BO-5 was seen as an long opportunity.  After all, a FBO or stalling is regarded as a reversal opportunity for a range run.

[10:47] <CM> ding 19.75
[10:51] <CM> low risk fbo long at bo5


And the alert for the chat....


[11:21] <CM> normally if we see a fbo bo5 pa returns to run the range,,,
[11:21] <CM> just a thought.




RANGE RUN completed....

TEST OF HIGH AND LOW RANGE TARGETS 7/11/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

MORE news today, but from this side of the pond.   Fed Minutes disappoint and PA sells off.  But no worry, there was a range limit and it worked very nicely.  They sell in disappointment (so they say) but quickly buy at better levels.  So goes the story for the professionals..


We hit the highs (expected)

[22:20] <CM> the 32.25 lows converted to a +4 we now have a HL in play bulls will want 40-41 then another try on 1350 

in the pre market and had a nice downward Bearish TL with two sell signals at B8 and 32 respectively, with a long near the BOT level on B18-19.  A micro bearish wedge developed at B32 signal , but more bull effort was expected with longs looking to enter as PA pulled back into the wedge,  They did and their effort eventually hit a FBO short reversal at 1336.  1336 was interesting.  Just as buyers were entering , and a signal did flash, the immediate next bar at B49 formed a MAXT and was followed by a Doji on B50.  A MAXT is a two-bar doji pattern that will often signal a reversal or a maximum run in a trend.  Another issue, was the 50CB of B46 was at 1336.  Enough information to be concerned with the long effort.



The micro bull TL was broke at that same 1336 level for the news sell off before seeing a positive MAXT with a buy signal at the lower BOT level (<1 point).


Now buyers had confidence...

BREAK OUT AFTER THE CONSOLIDATION 7/10/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

AFTER a consolidation, a break out is expected.  When, is always the question so a BO of a range is  important to note, and play.  Today we see a BO20 to  a long term bull hold at 1332.25 at what appears as a final flag.

 However the PA develops, the BOT level is deemed to have priority.

RANGE BOUND CONSOLIDATION 7/9/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

TODAY was a range bound day; nice 5 point spread with rising bullish trend line after a nice short at the 47.50 level.  Earning season begins good; not great.





and the short...

NEWS WILL BE BLAMED FOR BUYERS GETTING BETTER ENTRIES 7/6/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

EMPLOYMENT news was not great nor devastating:  just not at the outlook values by the market.   Selling runs the ranges and moves to +5 then +10.  A nice profit taking day at the beginning of the month and, the underlying theme, a better long entry for the bulls as PA rose back above the coveted 1350, a close at the Short Bot and our "stop light averages" are back in sync.


Some of the chat for today as PA continued to sell in a bowl bottom before rising.

Target prices were not far off as we were expecting a bowl shape return toward the 1357-60 area.

[08:33] <CM> nice sell bar to break the 57.5 support

  [08:49] <CM> 56 area target
[08:50] <CM> covering showing now  accum may begin at the 1350

  [08:51] <CM> no 5m buy signal yet..

[08:52] <CM> 51.75-52 likely long entry look
[08:53] <CM> exits at 50

[09:27] <CM> second selling leg

[09:31] <CM> b1 a pb in bear trend

[09:35] <CM> ok econ news has played out  mkt poised for a buying recovery  but can be sloooow like yday  ie  range bound day
[09:37] <CM> thinking 1349-50 is a buy for end of day +      (was a +3 at EOD buys)

 09:55] <CM> open range (traders not cattlemen) types will see 51.75-48 as break out watches

(the 48 did break)

[09:58] <CM> x  favor a rounded bottom and a return toward the 57-60 pre release


[10:40] <CM> 1350.25-806.1-2611-12695


The Targets...  were close

TRENDS TO MAKE BOTH SIDES HAPPY 7/5/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

THE day after the US holiday was,  BORING.  Trends did develop to make both sides happy in a day the markets were flat, down, and trying to recover.




2000 Tick Look:

The early pre market three pushes was a strong sell contender with viable PB Longs  and a secondary shorting area on the way to a key support level.  A level that paid nicely to those that were watching PA.

[10:11] <CM> 57.5 support area..  potential for a reversal


The level did reverse for longs back to the 1363-1365 area.  A tight range bound middle, with selling in the afternoon stopping at a higher low.








5 Minute Look:

 Again, a clear three push area for shorting with a secondary entry down to the support where the reversal longs entered.  The final selling hit a higher low resistance where a long was signal.

 and the follow up sell signal to end the day. All-in-All, a somewhat boring day but trending opportunities made both sides happy.

BULLS CONTINUE AFTER THE BO 7/3/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

The last few days have been busy.  The last post was about the perception that a major break out was imminent: in a few hours as it turned out.


 July 3:

PA was trending at a major support point and in a moderate bull channel that broke at the US Open.  The first 2 bars were wide range and difficult on the Rth to determine a direction.  The support and channel seem to imply long.


Other than the initial BO, the next preferred long opportunity was at a quality PB.  It hit and still stayed north of the EMA (which was last hit at B2).


The TL break near a key level offered a nice PB short to the EMA.


7-2-12

A :Tracy" pattern was developing early and the downside was calculated.  PA came through on the backside of the Tracy, and hit the lowest target for support.

A three push hit on the support gave way to a bullish channel with low/high transaction points. Various views developed in the day are shown.  Often multiple charts carry different information during the day.