RANGE RUNNING INSIDE 50CB CHANNELS 2/25/14

Price action today was dominated by range runs inside 50CB channels.  When a 50CB appears, parallel lines can be created on prior highs/lows and a future estimating line can be added.  Today, those lines were helpful with timing issues.

BULLISH BREAK OUT FOR A NEW HIGH 2/24/14

Price was at a key level and threatening a break out.  At the US open a 50CB developed and price continued to run BO LEVEL.

BULL CHANNEL BREAK OUT TO END THE WEEK 2/14/14

ANOTHER bull channel break out day.  Whip action at the open as price moved to top and bottom of the range.  A channel was identified early and we had three developments:

1.  Two 50CB developed early; 1 bull and 1 bear.
2.  We had PA running the range with a bull bias.  Low buyers would go for +8 to +10.

[10:08] <CM> bullish channel  pre open and b1 b3 buyers to get +8 +10 would need 1829-1831 range  

3.  We had a LBBO which would likely run for the BO-5 given developments #1 and #2.

[09:58] <CM> look for 27 bo

All targets hit and price traded outside, albeit in a narrow range, the channel and was  supported by the 20EMA.

Nice end to a great week.

ANOTHER BULL CHANNEL WITH BREAK OUT TARGETS 2/13/14

ANOTHER bull channel developed today with early PA staying bullish to the 50CB and the 50CB Trend Line, with a quick run to the +8-+10 for the buyers, which was at the break out target 1812.

1812 was the support holding yesterday, but failed in after hours and Euro Zone trading.  With so many bullish parameters,  pull backs would be counter trend scalps until a break of an indicator.

PA stayed bullish (the gap area) to the 20EMA for the first half of the day, and touched it for support (also at the second 50CB TL).  This began a new micro channel that completed a run to BO-10 and 15.

PA was in a narrow range to end the day.

BACK-TO-BACK BULL CHANNEL DAYS 2/10 & 2/11/14

After the reversal last week, we have seen some nice bull channels days develop.

2/10

2/11

BULL DREAM WEEK 2/7/14

The market will always find a way to move so buyers (read professionals) can get in lower and sellers (the same crowd) can get out higher.  News, non-news, someone speaks, someone speaks and has a gaff, nothing is made something and the  flames are fanned by the talking heads and every Uncle X and Aunt Y will run to the phone to buy/sell too late or they get out at a bad price only to see the market run for the gold finish.

The point?  Markets will move when the money is ready leaving small investors out in the cold or holding the bag.  Your objective, and only objective, is to follow the lead not get pounded by it.  Embrace it, not fear it.  Make money from it, not give your money to it.

Where do you start?  Study trading patterns, charts, techniques, the "why to enter" and the "why to exit".  Watch, listen, take notes and copy charts for review.  What were your thoughts as X began to develop?  Real time reviews, not hindsight reviews where everyone becomes a superstar.

Practice, Practice, Practice and when your frustrated, or tired, PRACTICE again.  You must know what you will and will not do when X develops.  It is amazing that people would never try to hit a 100+ MPH fast ball without practice, yet will sink money into trades with reckless abandonment.

NICE WEEK in trading.  Bullish pressures were building, one evening buys at 37.5  another at 43.  The tone was being set.  The the daily ES flashed a reversal pattern, the "L" which had a significant upside.

February 5th

[21:38] <CM> ES daily has formed an "L" which has reversal potential to 1760  (link deleted)

Not only did we get the 1760, a buy signal kicked in and we had a follow through rise to the 90's, a 50 point swing from the initial buy entries see in play by professionals.

BULLISH UNTIL THE TRADING RANGE HIT 2/5/14

Trash the first hour then the bulls found a price they liked as price pushed into a trading range from mid day to the selling at the end of late the day.

B12  reversal was nice followed by B13 run to the EMA.  The better entry was at B21, a higher low, 50CB reversal that moved to the major 50CB at B24.  a buy was warranted and if you missed it, each pullback that does not cross the trend line or leaves a gap to the TL is a buy.

A failure to break back above the TL can be shorted.

BULL CHANNEL AFTER THE SELL OFF 2/4/14

Last evening the buys (longs) were at 1737.25.  The market sold off yesterday, but we were in an overselling position with a bias for the bulls to enter at attractive pricing.

Bull channel as we pushed to the 1752 target area which is resistance.  A micro channel developed late in the day as price again challenged the highs and resistance.

In after hours, the bulls seem to favor the 1743 area, and price has drifted back to the 37.5 area.

WHY TRADING IS DIFFICULT 2/3/14

Trading is difficult due to factors that have nothing to do with the basic fundamentals, because, fundamentally, trading should be easy;  develop a set of rules that marry well with your trading style and trade lower risk trades with clear entries and exits in mind.

The problems that affect simple trading:

• Would, could, and should. 

 Doubt and negativeness will cause problems if you do not learn how to control it.  Negative people that will say "you can't do that" are really saying I don't know how and hope you don't make me look bad.  W-C-S are internal doubts that rise when you miss a trade, get out "early' only to see the trade zoom, or when you trade a bias even if counter trend and against an overwhelming trend in price.Here, W-C-S will say " not bad, but if you did this you would have twice the gain!"

• Markets change

Buying in a rising trend will seem easy as well as selling in a declining trend.  The market will go through transitions between these two simple plans.  The long that was easy now becomes difficult, and the difficult short becomes easier.  Once you are feeling confident, the market rotates again:  Easy to hard back to easy.  The issue, you have to be able to change your position bias.  After trading so many longs it is difficult to change to a short mentality even when the market is screaming short!.

• Over trading or revenge trading

It is a judgement call, but when is "enough enough?"  What is your target gain per trade. per day or week?  Are you looking for 1-2 trades a day, etc.  If your on fire the tendency is to stray from your plan and over trade which can lead to the other poison, revenge trading trying to get your money back or to prevent a loosing day of trading.  Both should be avoided.

Six long (counter) trades at key Break Out level pull backs, or bounce, with an overwhelming short bias in the market.  Success, but plenty of W-C-S today...

Ignore it.  Work to become a better trader.