WEEK ENDING 10/19/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

Discussed.  It happened.  It was played.  The PB to the low were bulls would have an interest.  Earning season has helped as well.


MONDAY

TL runner, EMA support.






TUESDAY

 Running the TL's



WEDNESDAY

Running and staying inside the diagonal ranges



THURSDAY

Range bound with reversals and range runs

FUN FRIDAY

Thursday's range bound day came after a flat, consolidating overnight trading zone.  Was earnings over?  Was it news from the Euro Zone (same news different spin)?  Consolidation and range bound  creates a  scenario for an extended break out.

In chat:   [14:01] <CM>  (runs) +8-10 longs +8-10 shorts... range bound after the overnight consolidation which increases odds of extended bo tomorrow

When the selling started in overnight trading   [10:44] <CM> couple of things from last evening  [21:06] <CM> ema break short..
[10:44] <CM> [21:14] <CM> 52.5 is a long
[10:45] <CM> the 52.5 was resistance level  and we struggled with the 1452 all night

The bias was for a short break out.  From the Short Break Out Target, PA nearly push down to the BO 5  in one candle.  The 50CB TL was a resistance for most of the day, and was slightly below the 20EMA.  This gap in PA to EMA was not tested until the CT PB toward 1435  (point A).

It failed, and another push down followed.  With the TL and EMA resistance, Point A failure was a lower risk short .

BOT PERFECT DAY 10/12/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


The day started with a play on the initial LB break out.  The stop was moved into profit and we waited for the run to develop.  It failed, and PA hit the stop.  It was covered and explained in our chat room.

The play is common; look for the BO run and if it fails your out with a limited risk.  This brings us to point 2:  when a BOT fails, look for a range run to the opposite level.

The plays are establish ahead of the PA for the market;

• A BOT BO is expected to run for a minimum of 5 points
• A FBO, look for a run to the opposite level
• A BO that fails between the BOT and the BO5 or fails at the BO5 area will be expected to reverse, run the range, and BO to a +5 at the opposite level.

Today was BOT PERFECT:  PA was a FBO with a range run to the opposite level in the pre open.  News interrupted the sellers for a range run back to the LB where we see FBO number 2.

A range run back to the SB, but this time we were expecting a BO to +5 points as sellers continued the pre open move.  Add two hours of static PA at the BO5 level, and a late PM run we announced back to 1426.  Day done.  Week done.

BULLS TRY BUT FAIL IN THE PRE-OPEN 10/9/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


FIRST, let's look at plain Jane:

Not very interesting.  I suppose you could play the EMA break.


SUPER SIZED (PRE-OPEN)

The market was selling in the Euro Zone but found support just below the short BOT (SB).  A nice PB by the bulls establishing a TL, pushing PA up into a range run, and creating some separation (gap) to the SB and the TL.  But about the same distance above the long BOT (LB), as compared to PA below the SB, we see a sell signal reversal.  RANGE BOUND.

Short selling back to the SB  and exit as the range run was completing.


THE DAY

The selling stalled as a SB Wedge developed.  The bias was for the shorts, with a trend continuation expected.  New short ran for a +7 and continued beyond the target to hit a SB BO 5, and a SB BO 10.

A few CT longs and the day was finished.


AFTER HOURS

PA continued to the SB BO 15



THE DAILY

We discussed the shorting action last week.  PA has now pulled off the TL.  As is, shorting has the untested 50CB down around 1410-15.  We are near the prior support with a double resistance top.  I'm partial to the selling to establish better long enter positions which will break the top into the 1500's.  All we do is play what is given, and wait for the pros to pull money off the side back into the markets.

RANGE BOUND: LOOK FOR EXTENDED BO 10/8/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

THE ranges were released early this A.M. in the chat forum.  A few reversals and range runs later,we end a range bound day.

Why is this nice to see?  Two words:  EXTENDED BO

FOLLOW THE SIGNALS 10/5/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


TO understand the US Market today, we need to go back to last evening.   The BOT values were released, and we had PA failing at the LB.  A 1458 short was announced.

Flash forward to the Euro Zone trading.  Buy signals began hitting around 54.5 for a reversal in the market.  It was here we saw the beginning of the buy bull TL.

This long bias (and early buys) pushed back to the LB, with PA holding above (candle bodies) the EMA. When we have a 45 degree type TL, bodies holding at/above the EMA, and toss in the BOTs  the mix will most likely be productive for trend-direction orders.  The 8:25 candle was the final for the LB shorting; a doji at the TL suggesting an end to the selling.  The LB breaks and we get a 50CB bar run to the LB 5.  That 50CB became an important area to watch.  Exits at the LB 5 were followed by new longs on the second push to BO the LB 5 until the reversal signal hit.

The short was taken with a target considered to the 50CB and then the LB.  Near the 50CB  the PA was not optimal, albeit it was an important area of support.  To short, the area needed a BO.  We see the daily bull TL, an intermediate TL, the 50CB, and the 20EMA.  Longs were painfully slow and shallow.  By B40 area we finally get the sell signal and shorting was again in vogue.  PA hit the LB and followed with a range run to the SB and a 2bar reversal to close at the EMA and the Mid BOT.

BOTs, signals, and the "stop light" (red-yellow-green) indicator are all proprietary tools for the BOT Trading System.  Join us on MiRC at #Chartmaster for current discussion and timely chart postings.

BULL TL CONTINUES 10/4/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

AFTER the 2 bar "doji" reversal yesterday, the bulls developed a trend line.  Today's tight range produced another bull TL.

YESTERDAY

The TL began at point 1, we saw the 2 bar doji at 2 and another TL hold at 3.


TODAY

Point 1     reversal at the SB but PA was in a tight pre open range.

Point 2     PA was holding at the Mid BOT and we have a 2 point TL

Point 3    PA runs to test the LB 5 level only to reverse back to the LB and the TL!

Point 4    TL bounce and the new run (#2) to the LB 5 where we again see a sell signal (Point 5)

Point 6   TL again, a broken record (good kind)      LONG!

When BOTs, signals, and TL's etc. converge or occur in a general area they are worthy of our attention

RANGE BOUND DAY AFTER HOURS POP 10/3/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

 Range bound entering the US Open, traders were quick to pick up on the short and the range run.  The follow up was the 1437 longs when PA reversed just above the SB-5 level.

Additional shorts were taken at the LB-5 1st push.  In the chat, we were discussing the failure with a target back to the 50CB level of B21 as PA moved to the LB.  PA hit target, and the LB.

By B68-69 we see a 2 bar doji  reversal pattern on the Bull TL.  PA stabilized at the close then broke higher for the second test of the LB-5.  A third test would likely break the level, and that occurred later in the after hours trading.

AFTER HOURS

5 TO 5 TIGHT RANGE: EXTENDED BO SOON 10/2/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

 BOTs remained unchanged going into the US market with PA trapped in a narrow range between the BO5 levels.   The overall bias was bearish, but we saw two key reversals for the bulls signal at B27 and B64.

Tight ranges tend to produce extended break outs.  The  daily still hovers at the bull TL and the 50CB (horizontal TL).  Pros seemed to have kept an inordinate amount of cash on the sideline.  We are approaching the 4th Qtr., the traditional best period of the year.  But we have those contrarians still holding out.

Scenario1:  market must correct down (1410-1370) to allow money to flow back in to create profits in Q4.  This would precede a push into the 1500's. This can develop with  a release of the accumulated negative information about Europe, already news, but with a new spin to drop the PA anchor.  This also helps October fulfill it's mission to be the month of surprises.

Scenario 2:  Money tires of waiting and we get the 1500 sooner, then a contraction.

We watch the Bots, signals, and PA and trade the market.  To protect longer term investments, Put action will be initiated when the  contraction surfaces.

HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT 10/1/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

Hiding in plain sight.  Disguised buyers or sellers. We had that today before the US 10 AM news.  First, PA rising in the range. Second, PA lows only slightly below the EMA.  But notice the expanded bull bars where buyers were entering slightly higher from 8 AM to 8:45 to the open at 9:30.  The push through the LB (long BoT) with a PB to prior selling pressure levels, a B1 50CB, and a higher low.

Multiple key points converging with PA can spell expansion in the PA; the kind we saw today.  Even B8 expansion revealed a 50CB at the break out 5 level (LB +5 points) as it ran to BO 10 for a reversal.

The reversal continued, and was a short hold, when PA could not create higher highs, but more importantly, Pa could not PB beyond key levels (BO 5, EMA, LB etc.).

They work for the bull, and for the bear.

The story before the US Market:

PA in the Euro Zone trading was almost duplicated in the US market.  The LB (buy) and the SB (sell) levels were calculated and followed into the US market.  The 2:55 break out ran for a +10 and a sell reversal.  These reversals were almost identical to the US LB, the following 50CB buy was near the MB, and the prior selling levels were near the SB calculation.  Like the US PA, multiple levels converging become very important to watch.