AUD HITS TARGETS 4/22/15

AS a follow up to the last post, the AUD performed nicely as if it was following the script.  450 was a target and a break would likely be nice for the bulls.


4/21/15

[06:57] <cm> update on AUD price back above 50cb 45 buy bias also inside target range (chart deleted)


[17:22] <cm> 30m chart AUD still in range will look for a third try on 77450 (chart deleted)

And the follow up:


[21:37] <cm> 30m AUD did try 77450 again and had a nice run note nearly identical 50cb's bear followed by the bull price back in range (chart deleted)


And the charts

AUD and EUR POISED FOR BUYS AFTER SELL OFF 4/20/15

It's been  awhile since the last post.  It is burdensome at times when all you want is some time away from the markets.  But, to keep the intent alive, we get two views today:  the AUD and the EUR.  Both were poised for buyers after selling off.

Post from various financial chats:

[10:09] <cm> EUR buyers
[10:12] <cm> buy interest & stronger buy (chart deleted)
[10:26] <cm> AUD 77225
[10:30] <cm> AUD aggressive buys conservative w/ the 50CB bo (chart deleted)


Sellers were seen to be in a weak position,  Their exits (covering) created a buy opportunity in both currencies.

Up side targets hit but were followed by stop hits.  The expansion for the buyers did not occur,  albeit the upside is still open, 

  If the market moves immediately to your plan, all the better.  If not, take what the markets offer.

NEW TRADE, SAME TOOLS USD/CAD 2/18/15

The instrument may change, the tools are the same.  Had a chat trader ask an opinion on the USD-CAD.  It is nice to have more eyes looking,  A quick glance and it was clear that a short was the bias.

The issue was:  How long do we wait for the trade to develop?  Traders can have an opinion and jump into a trade only to have price bounce around taking them out in fear.  A trader must have a bias as to direction, an entry point and an exit.  Entry and exit strategies vary and is a learned skill.  Practice, practice, then practice more trades before you enter with real money.  It does not give you the fear factor, but will help develop your entry/exit skills.

After you have practiced your strategies, documented results, you will be ready for a new experience: real money trading.  Start small.  Practice small.  You must feel the fear and greed that is part of every trade.  Keep your account small until you can replicate trades with success and after you have found a way to minimize the fear, the greed, and the risk associated with every trade.

You are likely to fail if you do not have an entry/exit strategy and an ability to manage your account.

USD-CAD

[20:11] <@nick deleted> usdcad  cm a shrt?
[20:17] <CM> sh with a stop 1.24550 area  stronger sh with a break of the 50CB support below  (chart deleted)
[20:18] <CM> 5m chart
[20:18] <@nick deleted> tks
[20:20] <CM> will look at 1.24510 for entry

The charts were short time frames with a short bias.  Longer time frames are preferred for stock or option holds; the tools are the same.

[20:39] <CM> albeit it is a short term chart  the 50cb and the 50cb 45 was hold price suggesting a short  (chart deleted)

Price action was flat with a sell bias.  Lower 50CB's were the targets, with break outs short strength increasing with each 50CB.

STRATEGIES:

1.   Aggressive shorts at the current price, with adds at the lower 50CB's.
2.   Aggressive shorts at the current price with exits at the lower supports. (50CB's)
3.   Wait, and take Conservative shorts at the break outs


[20:40] <CM> T1 24480
[20:41] <CM> partial exit
[20:41] <CM> stop to 24500  a win-win trade

With trading, you continue to evaluate price action for additional trades  if  your strategy is still valid.  Shorts continued as price fell to the 1.237 area.

PLAY THE MARKET, THEN YOUR GUT FEEL 2/13/15

ANOTHER look at the AUD to wrap the week.


[20:43] <CM> following yday discussion on playing the 5750 the 50cb of XJO at 5750 held nice pop in mkt and options
[22:00] <CM> if you are look short AUD initial order around 77365 add at the LB with MB target (link deleted)
[22:04] <CM> XJO after hitting 52w highs mkt hits a pb to test the 50cb 5768 http://screencast.com/t/xYVF542ZJX73

PA was flat, trading inside two levels:  a breakout (BO) for the bears around 77365 and a 50CB that was resistance to the bulls.  The gut feel was a trial rum lower to fill that gap test of the LB.  We had a lower high, and flat pricing.

The larger picture, we were flat and in the middle of two extremes.  As any trader knows. the market will do what the market will do.  Trades will follow the crowd fueling the moves.

PLAY THE MARKET, THEN YOUR GUT.  AT LEAST LET THE MARKET CONFIRM YOUR GUT FEEL UNTIL YOU HAVE EVALUATED THE RISK AND TAKEN STEPS TO MITIGATED AS MUCH OF THE RISK AS POSSIBLE.

That said, reading a move ahead of the crowd can be very promising.  Put your stops in place for protection based upon your feel for what the risk is in relationship to your entry.

In this case, the BO was below Price Action (PA) and the limit entry was safe.  As PA rose to take the 50CB longs trigger.

Secondary trades trigger at the next 50CB, or new traders will use the price for their initial orders.

The bias is long and hold until another violation occurs.  This can be a break of the CB45 or another 50CB,  When a break occurs, all prior resistance levels become support (bull run/swing) and vise-verse for a bear run/swing.

If violations continue, the trade continues.  The trade will always look for a reason to exit, and a reason to reverse your bias.  

AUD THIS WEEK: 2.9-2/13/15

In our last post we were looking at an oversold run (which was good since we had selling signals) prior to the news sell off.  The oversold position was an entry for bull buyers.

Skip forward to this week, and once again we have a signal sell off and another oversold position.




[22:11] <CM> on the 15m  we see bo of the lower targets, a bear channel  and in the middle a 50cb develp that was tested and failed suggesting more selling.

[22:53] <CM> ryder  5m broke out of the hockey stick  reminds me of that selloff few days ago  had nice pb from oversold

[00:09] <CM> buyers at 76490
[08:07] <CM> 01[00:10] <CM> look for additional consideration at 76550


and how we git there,,,

2/10

at upper limit LB which failed suggesting selling. Also the MB was biased toward the SB,

The sellers had two lower targets and new sellers struck around 77720/  Price complete the run to T1 and T2 for exits.

Y2 held for a countertrend  development  to set up the next bear leg.

2/11/15

bear channel, range run selling, SB break out, a 50CB test that failed (suggests continued trend) and then the major sell off.


Now we are back to an oversold position.

The buy signal  and a follow up position with an upper 50CB to test.

Range run when the 50CB broke confirming the reversal from the low buys.  The LB becomes the new support.

A very nice week.

WHEN NEWS, IS NEWS 2/2/15

It seems people will always debate if news is news, or if the news is already factored into the price.  I tend to camp with the group that believes "some" know before others, or at the lowest level, have a high probability intuitive  thought about what is going to happen.

 So if "some" have a really good feeling, could that feeling show up in the price?  OK, that;s another camp.  The psychology of pricing revealing traders/investors intent.


Whatever you believe, there are volumes to address you interest in trading.


AUD and NEWS

The AUD was trading in a range  (what I call the BOT Range) prior to the "news" about the RBA rate.  Month-after-month of zero, no change quickly came to an end when a rate cut was announced.  The market reacts and price plunges.  Woulda-coulda  traders  gather and talk about how they wish they had participated, never asking how others shorted the plunge nor investigating if there were any indication that the sell off would occur.

The BOT Range had the 5 minute price coming off the high and the LB (long break out target).  the LB is where buyers have an edge over sellers, price expands upward.  The SB (short target) is where the sellers have the advantage.  The Middle (MB) will not necessarily be 50% of the range and can be nearer one of the outer targets creating a bias.  A failed break out is likely to run to the opposite level.  There is more, but this is a quick review and a 1 pager blog post.

So, what did we have?  The AUD failed to run at the LB and a follow up attempt was a lower high.  Price drifted toward the MB.  News hits, and the range run is completed with a SB break out.

Hourly chart:

5 minute chart:

THE OPTIONS

[22:23] <CM> aud floating between upper and mid range  (chart deleted)
[22:23] <CM> lower 7786
[22:24] <CM> mid 7797  upper 7819


On the hourly, we have an untested 50CB around 7860 and the trend is bullish.  If there is no surprise with the rates, the market has a chance to continue bullish.  A SURPRISE, oh noooooooooo.

 A failed break out, a range run developing, a lower high..  Was the market telling us "some" knew something or did it just happen?  Another volume debate...

1.  early short at the MB.  The known risk is the recent lower high.  At the extreme, the LB,
2.  Enter a short at the SB
3.  Lock the news with a bracket long at the LB and  short at the SB.

You have options.  Pick a trade that fits your trading strategy.