Bulls Run before the Holiday 3/28/13

The day before the holiday sessions provided bulls new life.  Early economic data created an opening frenzy inside the range, but price soon settled into our first bull channel.

Price broke the channel and settled along the 45 degree trend line from the bar 4 50CB.  A second bull channel developed creating new long trading opportunities.

The near term outlook is a run into the 1570's.

STAYING WITH THE CHANNEL AND TREND 3/27/13

The US Market started the day in a bullish channel and remained there until the close.  The first entry was off the failed break out to the upper target area.

[09:57] <CM> ES 51-51.5 target
[10:01] <CM> 1546-1549 approx trading range  for the break out
[10:11] <CM> channel (or flag) from the open

[10:15] <CM> b9 viewed as a fbo
[10:17] <CM> if b10 fails as well then 1548 viewed as a long potential
[10:26] <CM> take exits  upper target area hit


By bar 44-45 it appeared price was attempting to try another break of the channel, but a gap developed to the lower Trend Line setting up the next long effort.

Finding a Reason to Enter 3/25/13

The ES found an early resistance today around 1558 and quickly pushed below the 20 EMA.  The first trade today (late to get going) was the pull back to the 50CB of bar 22 and a break of the bear trend line.

Price was thought to be able to reach the 5 minute EMA, which would be sufficient to let the trade work, and we were in a trading range roughly 1549 to 1544.

The second trade was another trend line break pull back to the range line at 1544 and a 50CB for bar 41.

As mentioned in post and chat, we look for trades that have a higher probability to work, a reason(or reasons to enter) and a target that is likely to be hit.  A price push beyond the target is very desirable.

Late, and a Slow Grind Day 3/22/13

Sooner or later you have one of those days you are late to the party.  Trading in the U.S. market was well under way and had a bullish bias.  No price below the 5 minute EMA, and bars were seen as sluggish.  A slow grind of waiting if in a trade.

If a move is established ( i.e. late to the party) personal preference is just to stay on the side until a promising set up develops.  Chasing is not recommended,

The only play today was the thought that the high resistance would fail again, allowing a short in the pullback.

Resistance was seen in the 1549.5 area and another test was in progress from bar 20.  The thought was, price would push slightly into the resistance (we had 1450 as well) and pull back.

The short was taken and followed back to the EMA.  Not as exciting as yesterday, but small ranged moves, prices that are relatively stagnant, or prices that trades sideways are more difficult to trade.

It's Friday.  The market will change and more trades will come.  No need to waste energy on limited returns    Enjoy the weekend.

Afternoon Entry Timing 3/21/13

The afternoon trading followed a similar pattern as the early A.M.  We see price had extended higher by the bulls, stalled and returned to the 20EMA.  Bars 40 to the entry bar were showing a resistance around 1542.  The thought was we were likely to see another move lower, and a short was entered below the resistance level.

There will be three parts to any entry:  The entry itself, the target and the protective stop.  The stop placement is considered to be optimal if it is in or near a perceived support/resistance level.  You may need to take some "heat" if your entry is away from that S/R level, but this type of stop will tend to let the trade work.  Too often it seems people complain about a stop out only to watch their trade work (from the side line).  The target is a personal choice, but I will look for prior pushes to gauge the likely range price will run.

In the second trade today, price would likely test the low, and 1543+/- was the target.  If you get your target, look for the next trade.  Don't get hung up on price running beyond your target.  Your objective is to go for lower risk quality trades, not trades that try to squeeze out every tick..



The last trade of the day was another break down in price after the bull stalled.  Albeit the entry took some heat,  the stop was at a prior resistance and gave breath to let the trade work.  The target was a low test, then adjusted for a break of the more recent low of bar 76.  It was near the end of the day, and the target range was narrowed.

overall, a nice day trading the failed bulls since selling (bear bias) was deemed to be the quicker and more productive trade for today's action.

Multi-Chart Looks for Entry Timing 3/21/13

Speak to any number of traders (x) and you are likely to find X number of opinions about trading.  As you gleen through all the information, you are likely to see patterns emerging that center around some Price Action Strategy.  In your quest, just remember to find what seems to work for you, and keep it simplified.  I have seen some charts that are more for an art museum than for trading.

Today's point is to look at multiple time-frame charts as a tool for trading.


LOOK 1:  3 minute, 5minute and a 1point bar chart


The pre-open for the U.S. today was decidedly bearish in tone.  Thus my approach was to wait for a pullback, if the bull was to be revived, or wait for an opportunity to take a lower-risk short that would be with the dominant trend.

All three charts were showing a resistance level near the 20 and 50 EMA's.  The 5 minute was stalling near the price turn in the pre-open where price moved away from the 20EMA.

Any entry you take can fail.  The trader's job is to identify where price is likely to do what your trade is designed to do.  There should be some compelling reason (or reasons) to enter what your judgement is regarding as a lower risk trade that is likely to produce favorable results.

The trade was entered with a belief that price would, at a minimum, retest the prior lows.


LOOK 2:  setting targets

Setting targets and stops are a personal choice.  My preference is to take a winning trade that has price moving beyond my target.  No "here is the top, or the bottom".  Just play the action and leave biased opinions on the side.  The stop and target were set in this case where support/resistance was deemed to prevail.

The trading range dictates; not random BS.  The market could care less about what you think.  Plays are from reading what is happening and what is the likely near-term results; not wild speculation ( example: "market is moving to 1520!").  There is a huge difference.

LOOK 3:















When a trade is over, look, read, make new interpretations.  Yes the trend line failed, yes price hit resistance, and yes it hit our target.  BUT.....

The higher lows seem to suggest a pullback, not a trend continuation for the bear.

Look, read, enjoy your day trading....