HOME ON THE RANGE: PART 2 8/30/13

PA was hovering around the T2 (target 2) when it started to show weakness at the EMA.  With nearly perfect 50CB's break of key levels, PA seemed destined to moved back into a range bound pattern.

Nice double bottom pattern toward the end of the day, and more 50CB's at a key level for the day.

HOME ON THE RANGE 8/29/13

RANGES and targets, 50CB's and 50CB Trend Lines.  The bear/bull moves were slightly stronger than expected but still within the range plan for the day.  More is always better, if you have a game plan.


1[08:02] <CM> after hours and euro mkt we had another t1 and t2 run from the profit taking lows in the pm of the US mkt.  the 28-38 range we were watching has completed the range run.  35-43 the focus today  thinking bias leans short as traders take the last big summer holiday in the states.  range bound day expected.


[08:05] <CM> +5 short bo  +3 for long  gives us 30-46 swing range

Nice day.  Actual swing range was approximately 28-45.

READ THE CHARTS, AND PLAY THE MARKET 8/28/13

Read the charts and play the market, not let the market play you.


ES TODAY

read the post, then read the market.  Nothing else to add. targets hit.



[07:20] <CM> last evening took the 30.75 avg to 32 for the exit.  PA did reach to 34 inside our 28-38 zone before failing again.  still sense  buy opportunities and will look for a test of the 28-34 area discussed last evening, which has T1 at 35.5 and T2 around 37.75.  bear sides will look for 20-22   range bound consolidations  can be trying  so play safe

BIAS OR NOT, LEVELS TELL THE STORY 8/27/13

GUESS the August market failure has returned.  Not a problem when the levels are in play.  The bias was toward the bull side .  We had support and were attempting a test of the 50CB.

The test failed and PA broke support, and nearly hit the BO-5.  The bull fought and failed again.  The bears would win this day.  The levels held to the upside and broke to the down side.

  [07:49] <CM> es bull mkt bo at 52.25  test of a 50cb at 45.25  support at 40.25  a bo has resist at 1654

The 50CB failure added to the SB BO was too much for the bulls to handle.

PLAYING THE RANGE 8/26/13

NICE PA today, enough to satisfy Bulls and Bears.  In the end, it was the 50CB's and the 10 point range that defined the market.  A 50CB test before the open, a 50CB bar 1 open, a 50CB break out for the late PM selling to the BO-5 (BO-10 in after hours), and PA contained by the upper limit of the range.


[07:24] <CM> es numbers to watch today:  59 50cb  support at 57.75  61 a bull 50cb bo  next level 64.5 the LB  nice 10 pt range 57-67

A BULLY IN THE MARKET 8/23/13

THE buyers continue.  The extended target (and not in a straight line) is the 1680's for the ES.

The CL had a support and  50CB BO.  PA stayed bullish until the 50CB TL crossed at a bear 50CB.

BUY BIAS BEFORE THE OPEN 8/22/13

BOTH ES and CL were in an accumulation mode before the US market open, and the buy bias was the call for the day.  The "short" safety net never developed.

ES TODAY

[07:10] <CM> ES bases at the low of our range ( 53-36) from 8/20  today es and CL are in accumulation (buy modes)  we are +3 to a long bo of the current 50cb test from the euro open.  will look for fbo around 39.5-39.75 and happier with a short at 38 bo (link deleted)

CL TODAY

[07:16] <CM> CL today  CLV3  based at 103.8 area from our short point of 104.8 yday  we are likely to test the break down area from yday 104.5-104.7 which is also a  50cb today.  short interest 103.95-104  but see cl run to 105+  (link deleted)

Bully nice day for those that pay attention...

A LOOK AT CONSOLIDATION 8/21/14

August and September historically seem to be troublesome, and this year seems to be following history, albeit we play each day with our bias in the background.

On 8/20 the ranges were +10 bull to +7 for the bear, or 1653-1636.  In a multi-day consolidation, all data is important.  The consolidation phase will break, and an extended break will be expected.

ES TODAY

[07:49] <CM> ES today:  we are in a multi-day consolidation zone 1642-1656  on the 5m it will look more like a flat line at the bottom of a bowl.  we are back to higher lows off the the 42 support.  we have two runs to 55-56 followed by distribution.  my gut is another run To that area with a bull target to 1680 to complete a cup/handle type on the 5m.  upside 56-60 resist on the way.  a break of 44 would appear significant and look for extended selling

So, we have a consolidating pattern, a FMOC day, and reasons to look for a near term move to complete the cycle. (the 1680 area).  On the way, the consolidation will play in a restricted range then break.  Will resistance above, the bull would need a substantial rally to break above and create new support levels.  The Bear, on the other hand, is in control at the moment.  If you have doubts, look at the PA run ups that fail and convert to distributing sell offs.

 ES early wedge  and PA holding above 44 and trying to decide which side of the 46-48 zone it will break.  The break out  saw short interest rise but PA stalled at our lower support and moved against the shorts in the FED-o-roma run.

FED-o-roma over.  PA pushes higher but can not break the resistance.  No rocket science here.  Market will  distribute and 44, after prior attacks,  would not hold.  "Significant and extended..."


CL TODAY

[07:58] <CM> CL  105.30 area a 50cb test to upside  also was a break area to yday open and a likely area for pa to find the 5m ema    the ema is aggressive short with 105-4.80 downside look for the conservative short

Flip to the CLV3.  PA pushed up toward the prior contract's 50CB in the pre-open only to fail.  The short bias would play to our favor.  Shorts at 105 to 104.8 were rewarded.  The late A.M. denial in the 4.70 area and the EMA was the final bull effort and below the 4.80 sell target.  The EMA would be a resistance measure with a gap to PA suggesting an extended sell off.

BULL BIAS BREAL OUT DAY 8/20/13

EARLY AM PA was settling at support and would rise to our test area target where the distribution side entered.  The sell off broke B261 and B252  50CB's to settle slightly higher than our support line.

  [06:24] <CM> es  continues to distribute in selling pb's  today:  bull mkt flip 49-50.5  bear resist challenge 46-48  support at 41.50.  likely scenario a bo around 45 to test 47.25-48.  again today watching for fbo's and 50cb violations  range today +10 bull  +7 for bear  1653-1636 

 

This higher support was another point of interest for our bull bias. Either PA test the highs again or we get the support BO.  Either way, PA was likely to run +10 for the bull and +7 for the support BO.

In the BO run, the 50CB's are tested but do not break; another support for a continuation of the buying.

BUILD YOUR CASE & LET THE MARKET PLAY IT'S HAND 8/19/13

We are heading toward the end of the 3rd Quarter, the FED talks about an exit, and news continues to stir at the traders' decision process.  The trader looks for " buy low sell high" while the market will accumulate and distribute using the philosophy of   "a better price".

• Accumulations will  occur at better prices (declines in a rising market)
•  Distributions will occur at better prices (a rise in a declining market)

Build your plan and let the market play.  When your targets hit, be prepare to respond.


ES TODAY

[07:10] <CM> this is the ES 2 point range bar chart  (link deleted)    we have an upper bull support (broken now resist) and the current level.  mkt flip to bullish  in the upper bear zone 57.75-59.25   see mkt in the 50-55 area and will pay close attention to breaks at either point  fbo's and  50cb's will be dominant trade

We were at "buys" at the bottom of the range.  The accumulation would likely run PA up for a distribution.  If not, then look for a BO into the Bull Market Zone.

On the 5 min chart, the early run to challenge the high of our range quickly faded ( distribution) and we go to a sell mode.  The EMA acted a s buffer to later bull PB's.

The pre-open 50CB held and PA tested the top of the range.  The double top formation ( note the GAPS to the BULL Market line) pushed below the EMA.  The BO-5 was hit late in the trading day.

FRIDAY FUN DAY: RANGE BOUND ACTION 8/16/13

OK, a Friday with news still playing games with traders.  It was deemed a range bound day early, with trading carefully crafted.

ES

[09:25] <CM> ES today  expect range bound  look long pa at mid range and ema break  max runs expected today would be to BO-5  1650/1666    (link deleted)

[10:15] <CM> es holding at mb  off sb longs  in a channel as well  (link deleted)

While PA was holding at the MB it still seemed (perhaps optimistically) that it could return to the LB and break long, the gap in PA to the LB was telling another story.

[11:25] <CM> es alert   tl and mb bo test after b20 50cb failed  (1660 bar 22)    (link deleted)
[11:26] <CM> t1 56.25  t2 54.75

1650 BO-5 hits and PA bounces only to find another set of GAP signals at the MB; a lower high from the prior GAPS.  More selling and a narrow range for the day.

CL

CL had a different story to tell.  PA coming into the open was in a consolidating mode.  By bar 5 we have the breakout bar establishing a control bar.  The 50CB and the 50CB Trend Line become important guides to PA.

Plays are the same for any instrument: 1.)  50CB's that fail, look for a trend continuation; a break, look for the reversal. 2.)  For the 50CB TL, there is a bull/bear bias, and 3.) a break of these values look for prior 50CB targets.

We see the wedge developing after the BO run.  The top was 7.84, bottom 7.74 with 7.58 as a draw magnet.  A FBO of the 50CB followed by the second continuation move, which was seen as a max run.

[11:19] <CM> es bouncy ball up channel    CL final run at 108.10 area   downside 50cb 7.93  7.75 

A "Dick Tracy" pattern developing and the right side dropped very nicely.

When PA is breaking down, follow the same rules: follow the 50CB's and TL.  

End of the day,  PA did settled in the  7.75-7.80 target....

VACATION OVER: BACK TO WORK 8/15/13

Nice break for the summer and looking forward to Q4.  Markets are digesting information from the talking heads:  doom and gloom one day to "the sky is the limit!".  The only truth ti the market is relatively simple:

•  big money accumulated and distributes
• big money adjusts their holding mix
• markets advance when a "better" entry price (a sell off or pullback in a rising trend) is made available
• markets decline when a "better" selling price (a run up or PB in declining trend) is made available

 Yesterday, our focus was on a "dick Tracy" style setup.  Oil (CL) rose in an exploratory breakout from a declining trend.  We had a high 50CB, a mid, and a lower 50CB helping direct PA off the trend line.

[12:32] <CM> cl TL coming into the day  with upper and lower 50CB's  gut: we drift back to the mid 50CB (link deleted)

[12:59] <CM> upper 50cb test cl

The upper 50Cb was tested and offered the short trade back to the mid level.  This would complete the backside of the "DT" trade where PA runs lower than the previous (other side of formation).

Targets set

[13:08] <CM> 40-42  t1
[13:09] <CM> 28-31  t2

PA hits targets, the mid and lower 50CB's