On 8/20 the ranges were +10 bull to +7 for the bear, or 1653-1636. In a multi-day consolidation, all data is important. The consolidation phase will break, and an extended break will be expected.
ES TODAY
[07:49] <CM> ES today: we are in a multi-day consolidation zone 1642-1656 on the 5m it will look more like a flat line at the bottom of a bowl. we are back to higher lows off the the 42 support. we have two runs to 55-56 followed by distribution. my gut is another run To that area with a bull target to 1680 to complete a cup/handle type on the 5m. upside 56-60 resist on the way. a break of 44 would appear significant and look for extended selling
So, we have a consolidating pattern, a FMOC day, and reasons to look for a near term move to complete the cycle. (the 1680 area). On the way, the consolidation will play in a restricted range then break. Will resistance above, the bull would need a substantial rally to break above and create new support levels. The Bear, on the other hand, is in control at the moment. If you have doubts, look at the PA run ups that fail and convert to distributing sell offs.
ES early wedge and PA holding above 44 and trying to decide which side of the 46-48 zone it will break. The break out saw short interest rise but PA stalled at our lower support and moved against the shorts in the FED-o-roma run.
CL TODAY
[07:58] <CM> CL 105.30 area a 50cb test to upside also was a break area to yday open and a likely area for pa to find the 5m ema the ema is aggressive short with 105-4.80 downside look for the conservative short
Flip to the CLV3. PA pushed up toward the prior contract's 50CB in the pre-open only to fail. The short bias would play to our favor. Shorts at 105 to 104.8 were rewarded. The late A.M. denial in the 4.70 area and the EMA was the final bull effort and below the 4.80 sell target. The EMA would be a resistance measure with a gap to PA suggesting an extended sell off.
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