4-30-13

April comes to an end with a bullish tone.  Earnings still shine, albeit estimates were pushed down by prior economics, and the estimates will start "inching" upward and not seem as favorable.  It's a swing thing as the estimates move from over/under, to neutral, to under/over.

Another FOMC coming, but no surprises seen there.  Euro Zone countries still in an economic struggle mode, and we (read all) continue to think debt will continue forever.


TODAY:

ES opens with a rejection of the 1589 level and a 50CB is created at the 20EMA on bar 3. Price consolidates in the 81.5 to 82.5 area setting up the +8 to +10 professions seek in their trades.

A nice trend line developed from the 50CB on bar 13 and provide the basis for the +8  move prior to the EMA pullback in the late A.M.

More consolidation around 88.5 followed by a +4 push by the longs before the sell off to test the 88.5 support.  he final 50CB broke for another +4 run.

4-26-13

Today, multiple charts were used to determine entries and exits.  The assumption:  markets will have similar patterns since investors will enter/exit all positions at approximately the same time, and these investors have interest in each market.

Buys at the open with exits when the markets stalled.  NQ was the leader in the sell off.

[10:04] <CM> b7 long exits
[10:05] <CM> nq tanking  likely draw others down
[10:14] <CM> ES & TF new lows  part short exits  stops b6  b3 lows respectively  NQ b8 stops  exit all ym

New longs with EMA targets were suggested around  B11

[12:31] <CM> toss a coin   14655-2831-1577-932 upper targets  albeit the longer we trend s/w  the bears will sense bull defeat and push mkts lower

Price was consolidating in a narrow range, with a bull bias.  The long targets were hit.

EMA support for late afternoon longs.  Over all, a nice day.

4/25/13

Nice bullish tone today only to return back to the opening range near the close .  50CB's were the game plan today with three long signals and  1 short.

Two additional longs occurred near the end of the day, but were outside the normal trading zone.  It is rare that trades are entered/considered in the last 30-45 minutes of the US market.

4-24-13

B1 breaks out of the pre open consolidation after the 8:30 EST sell off.  Note the 50CB level.

B3  we see buyers and provided a buy alert

Upper resistance at 1577 and we were pushing back under the 50CB 45 Trend Line. Read short.  Provide a sell bias with a 1573 target.  When price pushed lower the trailing stop was set at the 1573

B9-10 developed a 2 bar doji, often regarded as a reversal signal.  Long bias indicated with a 1575 target.

A second reversal run developed with price moving back to the mid range.  We wanted a high of day challenge but preferred a pullback to the EMA first to draw in more shorts.  They would be trapped, and help fuel the HOD push by covering.  We got the pullback, and the pop long at B46.  A 50CB developed, and followed the 45 trend lime.

The final opportunity was the HOD 50CB failure that ran short to the close.

4/23/13

Early 50CB break out long for the bulls followed by two more 50CBs above the 45 trend line.  The break (or maximum hold suggested) came around bar 40 and was followed by early afternoon indecision, as seen in the 2 bar doji at bar 44-45.

Price pulled back to level 3 50CB (approximate) and formed another after the bar 61 bear rejection.    Bar 61 also became the pivot for the next bull trend.

APRIL WEEK 3: 4/15/13 TO 4/19/13

Starting another week under the revised format where we comment on each day, but update one post.  Another change, the post will be focused more on why or where to trade rather than posting the trade information. Honestly, no one cares about YOUR trades.  It only creates animosity and curt remarks.

If you trade one market, and can see another, it may help your trading.  Each market (YM, ES, NQ, TF) will seem to run in a near sync.  Yes one or two will lag, but when buyers and sellers enter or exit it seems to run the markets.


MONDAY 4-15

We have a bear channel and points where buyers entered (counter trend) and an upper level that was strongly suggested as a shorting opportunity with the trend.

The trend continued for all, and we see a final break out of the early morning trading range.

[09:52] <Chartmaster> buyers 2833.5  1572.5  931.0  14716

[10:10] <Chartmaster> buyers 14700 2829.75  1571.25 923.8

[11:10] <Chartmaster> YM NQ ES roughly at first PB longs value  look for a HL set up

[12:29] <Chartmaster> the HL's pushed back up to the targets (14742 2838.75 1574.5) establishing a LH  EMA lower risk shorts were valid

[14:20] <Chartmaster> price slightly below your climax bar  buyers entering  all mkts ym  nq tf es

[14:46] <Chartmaster> targets  14658  2816  1563  912
[14:48] <Chartmaster> exits

[14:51] <Chartmaster> exit back at the target for conservative longs  they were weak earlier, figured they would be on the side again  IF price pushes higher, can look for a pb entry

And so the day continued with bull efforts held in check, yielding counter trend trading.



TUESDAY:  4/16/13

[09:48] <Chartmaster> with the rise in euro zone short will be CT until we see a market flip
[09:51] <Chartmaster> bar 2 is the bull CB


pre open bullish tone

B2 50CB and the early consolidation

[10:37] <Chartmaster> chop-chop  consolidation  but with a slight bear tone now noted
[10:38] <Chartmaster> 14623 1558 911.5 2811  levels
[10:43] <Chartmaster> look for reason to exit lows b6 10 areas
[10:45] <Chartmaster> trail stops with low of prior bear   current-1 or current -2
[10:48] <Chartmaster> it will provide a nice blend of exits

[10:50] <Chartmaster> new buyers noted
[10:53] <Chartmaster> if weak, look for leg 2 bears..
[10:56] <Chartmaster> measure price against b15 for weakness (below 50cb) or break above for stronger buyers
[10:56] <Chartmaster> ema upper target
[11:05] <Chartmaster> if price hits your target, you will likely exit on a limit.  if price is running strong  (bar size)  then remove the limit and work with a trailing stop


Price ran for +5 from the low on ES where first exits were observed.

And the second exits around +10 from the low.

THE DAY

4-16-13

[09:31] <Chartmaster> the test area  price failed look for sell off 

The pre-open saw a bullish tone with a minor pull back.  Price moved back to test the 50CB and failed.  This was a sell read.  New buyers (NB on chart) entered on bar 3-4.  This essentially took out short stops, moving to the 50CB/EMA area where it failed to break higher.  Now it was time for longs to be stopped out.  With both side cleared, the market could continue the original sell bias.  The last sell groups were likely below the bar 4 bull.  This level was used to measure the likely exits around +8 and +10.

When buyer (i.e. area we can consider as a long too) were posted .  All other trading would follow the trend:  short.


APRIL 18

Today a quick 50CB break down by the bears to find another 50CB and a wedge, and our first return to the EMA.  It seemed to be shorting, but the 10 minute and 30 minute had additional upside potential.

[10:46] <CM> 10m still has upside to ema around 1545  30m has a 50cb around 1546
[10:49] <CM> opinion  we have more upside..

We hit the targets, but failed to break the prior 50CB, suggesting more selling.

[11:03] <CM> with the fbo  like shorts again..

[11:12] <CM> fundamental are still good trading tools  but we are in a transitional stage  from Q4/Q1  to the perceived slower summer period.  results  volatile swings

And so went the balance of the day as we had runs in both directions.  The bears first.

[11:27] <CM> targets 14496  2745  1539


The bulls took the lunch break, and the bears resumed after 1 pm EST.

[14:12] <X> are you making case to get long cm?
[14:12] <CM> no case to max sell profit
[14:14] <CM> b43-44 sellers will get +8  +10 (likely)  so keep stops near the action  1543-1533

[14:21] <CM> so +8 in +10 near  looking for reason to exit
[14:23] <CM> my twisted logic:  I want them to get theirs  so my "inside" their range trading will work.


FRIDAY  APRIL 19

End of the week and bulls returned.

We started with an early 50CB as the bull created an initial failed break out of the bear channel form the Euro Zone trading.  The bear pushed lower creating  its own 50CB before the reversal at bar 6.  Brings a little truth to the parties that believe traders should stay out of the first thirty minutes ( they believe this is volatile due to  professionals developing their game plan.

Personally, price is playable anytime and even better when we have setups.  Failed break outs, stalls at the EMA, 50CB's, range runs between the 50CB's, etc.

The 50CB trend line from bar 4 had three hits that were available for bull entries: B6-7, B12, and B17.  The trend line off B20 provided an upper exit.  Oh, look.  The entries at the B4 50CB break on B6 ran for their +10 points.

APRIL 2013: WEEK 2 (daily updates)

April 8

Start of a new week and bulls came to play.  The key was the early bullish trend line that reversed the bear selling.  Price hung around the 20EMA and formed a higher low around bar 35-36.  This was the play trend line.  Each major bull bar was higher, with the last forming a 50CB.

Price followed the 45 degree from the 50CB (bullish) and created a gap to the EMA (bullish!).  The gap continued to each target level (1555 +10 from B35-36) and to the 1362 level (a hourly 50CB target).

The multi-day look on the 60 minute chart shows the break out bar for the bears (also a 50CB).  Price consolidated and pushed lower to find buyers and established a multi-day higher low while returning to test the prior break out level.


April 9

The US open was essentially a two leg push away from the 20EMA by the sellers. and a range float to test the prior break out around 1555.  Price came back to test the B3 50CB creating a lower high before drifting down the 45 degree trend line from B3.  Range bound action.

The second low was interesting.  We have , for all practically purposes, a double bottom with a gap to the 1555.  The B22 50CB was tested and broke, beginning the nice bull run that steadily gaped away from the 45TL indicating the strength of the move.

A bull 50CB developed at B46 and it was suggested to begin closing longs up around 1567-68.  The thought being, a pull back to support around 1563.75-1564 was warranted.

April 10

We started the week saying that the bulls had come to play.  They played again today with the 50CB break out working very nicely.

A point about super move days:  it can be difficult to enter, as the move does not provide extended pull backs.  When you see this, and on the side line, look at the difference (gap) in price and 1.  the EMA; and 2.  The 50CB or 45TL.  The question on a big move day is "where do I put my stop" more than "where do I enter".

 The first opportunity was the 50CB test of Bar 1.  B3 tested the level but there was no bear support with B4.  The 45 degree trend line was the entry consideration.  The gap continued to grow showing a strong bull.

the second 50CB developed creating the next opportunity.  The bear 45 TL held (price was consolidating) and we see another move up the bull 45 TL and a continued strong gap to the EMA.

A third and fourth 50CB developed, and price came back to test the original trend lines.  These are consider the optimal exit points.  Other exit points are considered at +8  and +10 points from the original 50CB or the low (high for the bear) immediately preceding the 50CB formation.  These exits would give you +8 value around 1576.75, +10 around 1579.75 and the 45 TL exits around 1583 to 1581.  The low prior to the first 50CB would yield  a +8 around 1573.25 and a +10 around 1575.25.

These are some of the guidelines considered, and each trader must determine their own entries, stops, and targets.


APRIL 11

Let's get to it.  Another nice bull day but there were some selling pressures that I assume are profit oriented.  If you have a different opinion, so be it.  I read the market  from the approach: how I feel major players and market makers will react.  We had a pull down at the open after favorable news.  We can have a lengthy discussion about the effect (if any) of news on the market.  I tend to believe the market will "disguise" the real move by using a counter move first.  We had a pre-release bullish move followed by selling which drew in new bears.  They helped fueled the renewed bull effort, the intended move.

The bar 4 50CB (after bar close) was at the EMA.  Read strong bull developing.  Consider playing:  the EMA cross on a strong bar; the 50CB (if tested) or the 45 trend line; or the first pull back.

The 50CB 45 TL worked very nicely, and we had a second 50Cb by bar 7.  This is a strong bull read, and exits will be considered maximized when price returns to the trend line (s).  The third 45TL actually provided a higher exit, certainly worth considering a partial if you have mufti-contracts in play.

Then a few "what is the market likely to do".

[12:51] <CM> bulls interested in testing the hod
[12:57] <CM> 91.5  92.5 targets

After the trade reason:
[13:12] <CM> the why  price consolidating but had a bullish tone  market makers would want last bull $ in before taking profits from a lower high    88.75 is last 50CB  and a conservative short in a sell off for profit

[13:21] <CM> btw 91.5 is a 50CB being tested
[13:22] <CM> makes 1591 an aggressive short if it fails
[13:23] <CM> aggressive 1591  conservative (out of current action) at 88.75
[13:24] <CM> 90.25 works too
[13:27] <CM> only YM set a HH  others a LH  thought:  a pb for profit takers.  we are consolidating in the 88-92 range





This is where we had the EMA bounce for a second failed break out of the wedge.

[13:27] <x> so what your action?
[13:28] <CM> short  known upside risk is 92.-92.5
[13:30] <CM> b17 50cb target 89.5-89

 
And then, when bulls seemed in command it happened.  That 'selling sense" that this had the possibility to push down significantly.  The Dick Tracy.  (see terms page).  essentially. price on the right side drops past the left (the open today).

[13:41] <CM> oh no! could it be?  Dick Tracy forming

More short bias, some idle chat, and looking for a move toward 1585-86 area.

Hmm, Idle chat.  Perhaps it time to move on.  Price? Yep, moved below the open in selling....


FRIDAY 4/12/13

End of the week and a quick look at the charts:  plain and "where I want to be".  The WIW2B is the visual you need to work toward.  My way, your way, another way does not matter.  The point: price will (is likely) do certain things at key points in the daily cycle.   I like:

• Price test of the 50CB's
• Price that fails (Bar 9-10  12-13) at a TL and another tool (i.e. the 50CB or EMA)
• Price that stalls (Bar 27-28  36-37) at a TL and another tool

Develop your tools and improve your trading.

PLAIN:  no clear entry/exits.  Just a guess.

Where I want to be:  for me, choices are clearer; risk is minimized and known.

Some of these I report in chat, other are visuals you get in a habit of seeing.

POST HOLIDAY: APRIL WEEK 1

The post holiday week 1 of April displayed a variety of trade scenarios.  Bulls versus Bears in a consolidation range.

4-3-13

This was a day for the 50CB's to fail in a strong push by the Bears.  The 50CB's held, and the 50CB 45 Trend Lines were useful in monitoring the push down,  The 20 EMA was a price barrier  for most of the day.



4-4-13

With stability back in price action, the ranges were again in play.  Range runs and pull backs were followed (Trend Lines).  Albeit price broke the early 50CB in mid morning, it was unable to breach that level after a bounce at the mid range.  Another test of the low, and we moved back to settle in the 50CB ranges from the A.M. matching the mid day highs.


4-5-13

Another day for range guidance.  The low was holding and an aggressive long.  More conservative entries were at the 50CB and the mid range above the consolidating range going into the open.

A late 50CB developed at the Bull TL as price pushed higher into the close.