APRIL WEEK 3: 4/15/13 TO 4/19/13

Starting another week under the revised format where we comment on each day, but update one post.  Another change, the post will be focused more on why or where to trade rather than posting the trade information. Honestly, no one cares about YOUR trades.  It only creates animosity and curt remarks.

If you trade one market, and can see another, it may help your trading.  Each market (YM, ES, NQ, TF) will seem to run in a near sync.  Yes one or two will lag, but when buyers and sellers enter or exit it seems to run the markets.


MONDAY 4-15

We have a bear channel and points where buyers entered (counter trend) and an upper level that was strongly suggested as a shorting opportunity with the trend.

The trend continued for all, and we see a final break out of the early morning trading range.

[09:52] <Chartmaster> buyers 2833.5  1572.5  931.0  14716

[10:10] <Chartmaster> buyers 14700 2829.75  1571.25 923.8

[11:10] <Chartmaster> YM NQ ES roughly at first PB longs value  look for a HL set up

[12:29] <Chartmaster> the HL's pushed back up to the targets (14742 2838.75 1574.5) establishing a LH  EMA lower risk shorts were valid

[14:20] <Chartmaster> price slightly below your climax bar  buyers entering  all mkts ym  nq tf es

[14:46] <Chartmaster> targets  14658  2816  1563  912
[14:48] <Chartmaster> exits

[14:51] <Chartmaster> exit back at the target for conservative longs  they were weak earlier, figured they would be on the side again  IF price pushes higher, can look for a pb entry

And so the day continued with bull efforts held in check, yielding counter trend trading.



TUESDAY:  4/16/13

[09:48] <Chartmaster> with the rise in euro zone short will be CT until we see a market flip
[09:51] <Chartmaster> bar 2 is the bull CB


pre open bullish tone

B2 50CB and the early consolidation

[10:37] <Chartmaster> chop-chop  consolidation  but with a slight bear tone now noted
[10:38] <Chartmaster> 14623 1558 911.5 2811  levels
[10:43] <Chartmaster> look for reason to exit lows b6 10 areas
[10:45] <Chartmaster> trail stops with low of prior bear   current-1 or current -2
[10:48] <Chartmaster> it will provide a nice blend of exits

[10:50] <Chartmaster> new buyers noted
[10:53] <Chartmaster> if weak, look for leg 2 bears..
[10:56] <Chartmaster> measure price against b15 for weakness (below 50cb) or break above for stronger buyers
[10:56] <Chartmaster> ema upper target
[11:05] <Chartmaster> if price hits your target, you will likely exit on a limit.  if price is running strong  (bar size)  then remove the limit and work with a trailing stop


Price ran for +5 from the low on ES where first exits were observed.

And the second exits around +10 from the low.

THE DAY

4-16-13

[09:31] <Chartmaster> the test area  price failed look for sell off 

The pre-open saw a bullish tone with a minor pull back.  Price moved back to test the 50CB and failed.  This was a sell read.  New buyers (NB on chart) entered on bar 3-4.  This essentially took out short stops, moving to the 50CB/EMA area where it failed to break higher.  Now it was time for longs to be stopped out.  With both side cleared, the market could continue the original sell bias.  The last sell groups were likely below the bar 4 bull.  This level was used to measure the likely exits around +8 and +10.

When buyer (i.e. area we can consider as a long too) were posted .  All other trading would follow the trend:  short.


APRIL 18

Today a quick 50CB break down by the bears to find another 50CB and a wedge, and our first return to the EMA.  It seemed to be shorting, but the 10 minute and 30 minute had additional upside potential.

[10:46] <CM> 10m still has upside to ema around 1545  30m has a 50cb around 1546
[10:49] <CM> opinion  we have more upside..

We hit the targets, but failed to break the prior 50CB, suggesting more selling.

[11:03] <CM> with the fbo  like shorts again..

[11:12] <CM> fundamental are still good trading tools  but we are in a transitional stage  from Q4/Q1  to the perceived slower summer period.  results  volatile swings

And so went the balance of the day as we had runs in both directions.  The bears first.

[11:27] <CM> targets 14496  2745  1539


The bulls took the lunch break, and the bears resumed after 1 pm EST.

[14:12] <X> are you making case to get long cm?
[14:12] <CM> no case to max sell profit
[14:14] <CM> b43-44 sellers will get +8  +10 (likely)  so keep stops near the action  1543-1533

[14:21] <CM> so +8 in +10 near  looking for reason to exit
[14:23] <CM> my twisted logic:  I want them to get theirs  so my "inside" their range trading will work.


FRIDAY  APRIL 19

End of the week and bulls returned.

We started with an early 50CB as the bull created an initial failed break out of the bear channel form the Euro Zone trading.  The bear pushed lower creating  its own 50CB before the reversal at bar 6.  Brings a little truth to the parties that believe traders should stay out of the first thirty minutes ( they believe this is volatile due to  professionals developing their game plan.

Personally, price is playable anytime and even better when we have setups.  Failed break outs, stalls at the EMA, 50CB's, range runs between the 50CB's, etc.

The 50CB trend line from bar 4 had three hits that were available for bull entries: B6-7, B12, and B17.  The trend line off B20 provided an upper exit.  Oh, look.  The entries at the B4 50CB break on B6 ran for their +10 points.