WEBINAR: SERIES 1 ENDS WITH A BANG

The webinar Series1 came to an end today.  Thanks for all that dropped in, shared thoughts, and contributed to a well received series.

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The targets were in place and we had a nice channel developing on the ES, with price testing the long BOT.  The comment was made to watch for a move prior to news, with a trapping reversal at the news.  The channel topped, and moved to the mid BOT support.

LONG!

1. At support of the mid bot.
2. Looking for a FBO of the channel.
3. At the 50% CB (control bar)
4. At the 5TF from the long BOT.  Here 5T means the required move for the long BOT/channel top short scalpers to get their point.
5. The BOT range was very tight in the upper range, suggesting buy pressure.

Price moved to secure a +7 from the long BOT and a +10 range from the open low.  Another channel developed, and another trade was taken in the PB flag to the TL above the EMA.  When a TL is near the EMA, the TL is given a higher preference for entries/exits.

PA was moving in a narrow range within the channel.  We had an estimate as to when PA, the TL, and the EMA would meet, expecting some weakness in price.  We see EMA - at the estimated point, with a second test before retuning negative.

Our TF friends were rewarded  with a similar move.  Again, we look for cross referenced moves in one or more markets to support our position.  If the markets are moving with your trade, there is a high probability of success.

WEBINAR: TARGETS ARE SET FOR THE DAY

The break out targets are set in the pre open session.  We started the webinar early since the activity warranted trade considerations.  Price would break above the long BOT, and the question was raised in our chat, "does the break of a BOT before the open mean new targets are needed?"  The short answer, no.

BOTs are developed to gauge the market for the trading session.  In our case, that is the US Market, but they could just as easily be developed for any of the trading zones.  Even though price broke the long BOT before the open, we would see a FBO which implies that price would run to test the lower BOT.  Traders following that move on the TF were pleased with their reward.



TODAY:  TQ AND ES

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TF started with an early control bar, and pushed to the long target.  A pennant type pattern developed, and we have a FBO and TL BO at the long BOT.  This FBO  is viewed as a reversal short with a first target at the 50% CB level, and a secondary target at the short BOT.

A second test of the long target ended with a MAXT reversal with similar exit targets.  Later we see a 50% CB long that had a target 1 at 814.8, which had been a consolidating area for b3-6.



ES

ES had two early FBO reversals that produced a run to the lower BOT.  B9 to b22  was a two leg run to the long BOT from the 50% CB at b9, and available as a short BOT reversal and EMA break by b13.

Started early, finished early.

TRADING BOT TRENDS

Today is a shortened day of trading.  We started in the pre open, had the BOTs, and had the webinar running.


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We like to have cross reference for a trade, i.e. another financials instrument is moving in our trade direction.  If the professionals are with us, or we are with them, the trade has a higher chance of working.  YM was in a bullish channel, and we see similar moves at or near the same candles.

TODAY:

1. We have a test then FBO of the lower BOT.  We expect BO's to develop trends, and FBO's develop a reversal trend to the opposite BOT.  We were looking long.
2. Price is bullish, above the EMA and with some gap, trading between the LBOT and the MBOT.  Targets listed are the +5 and +10 from the pre-open low, and +5 and +10 from the LBOT.
3. The second long has support at the EMA, no 5tf, the 50% and MAXT, and we had posted it as key point to watch.  Price and EMA hits the target placed on the chart.
4. New focus is on +5 and +10 from US Open low.
5. A micro flag develops and we have a MAXT level, a 50% level, and the possible Leg2 from the EMA.  BO+ for the expected run to +10 area, which is a +5 from the flag and our exit.
6. B19-20 was a reversal MAXT signal with a target back to 87 area, however it was suggested this would be a slow trade to develop

Day done.

WEBINAR: MAXT BOOKENDS FOR A NICE RANGE RUN

When price breaks a BOT we look to trade in that direction expecting a trend.  When the PA fails, the focus switches to the reversal trend.  When a BOT fails, it is believed that price will run to test the opposite BOT.  This was our focus today:  play the reversal and shoot for the long BOT.

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The market was in a bear channel coming into the pre open, testing then breaking the short BOT.  We have an early 50% level -63.75-created on the control bar 103, very near the bottom TL of the channel and the short BOT. Bars 104-105 creates a MAXT which is a reversal signal, and eventually become one bookend for the trading range.

Some of the events discussed in our webinar today:

1. the BO of the channel and the short BOT with a key level at 63.75 established.
2. MAXT reversal signal.
3. the key level was a short to the MAXT level, and a valid long for the reversal.
4. conservative long was the BOT reversal at 64.5, with another long valid at the 50% level b3 and the upper TL of the bear channel.
5. trend exit targets are +5 and +10 (see trading log on the webinar page)
6. at the mid BOT we see a flag.  We added a 5t +/- to the mid BOT, and see that price continued to test the high 5t.  Flag BO will determine the trade, and it worked with the long 5t.
7. price hit +10 from the low and the key level at 63.75.
8. the high hits and forms a MAXT, the other bookend.
9. the MAXT is a reversal signal, and we drew an ellipse target, thinking price and the EMA would meet.  It did.
10. at the target, there was no 5t failure, and we have a HL long setup back to the MAXT top.
11. in the PM, we have another setup at the 50% level (between the MAXT and long BOT).  There was no 5t failure, and it is a long ending at another MAXT.

When looking at a trade, the setup should have a story to support your entry.  We have the long BOT support, at the 50% level, no 5t failure, and we see the other markets making a move at the same bar zone, suggesting the professionals will move the market in our direction.

WEB DISCUSSION 2

It's Friday, Keep It Short and Simple.


TODAY:  A LOOK AT TF & ES

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The webinar was open early to the chat room members, and we had a discussion on TF.   There was a MAXT developing at the SH Target (BOT) b242-43.   At the start of  b244, the thought was we had the MAXT and the SH BOT hold, both suggesting the bar would push higher and that a long trend was expected.  An excellent place to enter your long.

The test and FBO at the L-BOT was a MAXT  followed by a LH at the open.  You should be reading short at the L-BOT FBO, and certainly by the LH.


ES AM

We see two MAXT's  in the pre-market establishing a bear channel, followed by a MAXT low at a prior BOT level.  The expected reversal trend was BO of the channel and we see a control bull bar developed at the SH Range (BOT).  The MAXT was a long, the channel BO should be considered, and the BOT reversal should be viewed as a long.

As we use the globex, there were two scenarios for the open, and both had support.  1.  a HL above the SH BOT and run higher; 2.  the trend continues down to complete the H&S pattern.  #2 was favored as we had a FBO at the upper BOT and price was staying below the 50% level of the bear control bar b278.  At the open, #2 plays out and we see the EMA acting as resistance.  BY b5-6 the 20 EMA crosses the SH BOT making the market short in the lower trading range (LTR).  The failure of b28 to cross the bear CB-50% was critical to the bull move.  We broke for lunch looking for more shorting.

ES PM

The afternoon trading in the ES was focused upon the 50%  CB-entries, with targets 1 and 2 for the trend move.

WEBINAR DISCUSSION

Today was the live webinar with pic and sound.  We have tried screen share, chat,etc.  The webbie appears better suited for trading. Tomorrow we will do another split day, with the 9-12 and 2-3 EST covered.



TODAY:  MARKET VIEW


The webinar covered numerous topics today, and  it is not the intent of the blog to write about everything we discussed.


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The chart coverage is the 5m for YM, ES, NQ, and TF.  A move by professional traders will be seen at or near the same time across the markets.  At least it should give you confident in your position when most, if not all, markets are moving with your trade.

The es trades today were focused upon:

1. pre open shorts at 50% control bar levels
2. markets hit the short BOTs early , and were trending down.
3. EMA and MAXT failure at the TL
4. key levels identified; these were targets after the market hit +10 from the open
5. longs were available at the HL's on the bullish TL's and 50% control levels
6. targets at +8 and +9 were hit by lunch ( targets from market low)
7. the FBO of the short BOT and the bear channel was played in the PM
8. we had a FBO of the channel and was looking for another long entry near the 1262 support, the TL, the EMA, and the channel TL
9. Our 1m chart flashed a tech long at  64.25 on b65; the 5m and range were longs near the 50% level of the control bar.  The technical long was in per the chart.  The Greek news just made it a monster play.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

TODAY  I am sharing all the charts.  In the chat (and screen share) we use a 5m chart for YM, ES, NQ, and TF.  6E is another.  The charts are interpreted to see major market moves which show in all markets, as it is believe that the professionals will enter across all markets at or near key points.

To enter or exit trades, another set of charts are used: 8 tick range, 5 minute, and a 1 minute.  The break out targets (BOTs) are calculated in the pre open session, and applied to the charts.  As the price action develops, we look for trend lines, channels, key focus points, break outs, failed break outs, flips, MAXT, order targets, and a host of other markers.  Any time two or more markers arrive at the same location as price action, a significant break is expected, which is one that will have several points in a run.

Trend Lines added to the BOT ranges become important areas to consider a trade.  A TL hit that does not break should always be considered.   After break outs of the long or short BOT, a reversal is another important consideration for a trade entry.

Today, we had a TL, EMA, and a focus point hitting at the same area of price.  The focus point (ES 1291.75) was the approximate center for the upper trading range top. This point was marked for other instruments.

 A MAXT was noted in TF, hinting at an exhausted run.  The market hear the FMOC news and breaks sharply down as the day ends.  If you mssed the top, or the EMA failure, you should have caught the long BOT reversal.

TODAY:  A LOOK AT THE CHARTS

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TF

ES

NQ

YM

ES RANGE

A SCREAMING TRADE MEANS TAKE IT!

[07:08] <Chartmaster> gm all  daily ranges updated  http://evestnews.blogspot.com    today's flavor:  watch for a nice run as if some new "news" is going to be released, only to reverse trapping the bandwagon traders


By 7:30 AM the market had tested the long target and failed.  We had a flip and the EMA was acting as resistance.  Price pushed back to the Middle BOT, and by b1 we see a push down for a four point run from the 7:30 high.   B2 and 3 failed at the EMA, and B 4 drew in new shorts as it pushed toward the short target.


TODAY:  THE ES


Sometimes a trade screams at the trader.  How many clues do you need? 

1. We have price trapping between the mid range and the EMA.
2. The 50% area of the control bar is at the Mid BOT, and we had no 5tf
3. By b5 we have a flip.

Any long entry in this area was correct, and certainly at the long BOT as price moved into the Upper Trading Range (UTR).

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STRONG CHANNELS:  strong channels result in longer holding periods.  While it may be difficult for traders to enter after a strong move without any touches/moves to the EMA, the PB to the TL without a break can offer opportunities.    The Bull channel completes with a MAXT, and develops into a Bear Channel,  with a short opportunity at the EMA flip and upper TL.  Again, another trade screaming.  The bear ends with another EMA flip.

Another push up for a higher top, but a return to a bear trend with some 50% trade setups, flips, and a TL short.

AN EYE ON THE SURPRISE MOVE

you have seen those days.  The market has been selling off since 22:00 the evening before.  When the Euro Zone opens, we have a  5 point range setting a lower high from the overnight, and still lower than the prior trading day close.  By 6:30 AM EST price has flipped, and now is pushing lower and below the EMA.  Greece is still an issue, and pundits are talking bearish.  The expectation is a continued selling for the US market.



TODAY:  ES HAS A SURPRISE

[07:09] <Chartmaster> daily targets updated mkt bias short, but watch for surprise move. mkt technicals near prior lows where rallies began. http://evestnews.blogspot.com

The bias may be for more selling, but some technicals were pointing toward a possible "surprise" move to the long side.  The BOTs work well when the market decides to change direction. 

1.  We see a mid BOT test , then an EMA flip by 8:30 AM EST.
2. the first FBO of the long BOT with a reversal to the EMA support.
3. B1  mkt open  with a long position, or at least at the 50% level.  B2 is the 1st rev
4. Market first PB to EMA, with another 50% long pay. b12
5. Second PB b16-18  with an EMA long at BO of bear channel
6. Consolidation at what could be high of day
7. Flip at b43 with a BO short at the lower TL b51
8. B59 bear control bar BO at the 50% level on b61.  This creates a short term line for long/short for a head & shoulder pattern.  We see a MAXT above the EMA that creates a LH

CHANNELS AND BREAK OUTS INSIDE THE RANGES

Each morning, the break out targets (BOTS) are set for the US market.  They could just as easily be applied to any trading zone.  BOTS are trading ranges, dividing the anticipated market action into the upper trading range (UTR) and the lower trading range (LTR).  If the long or short target breaks, we expect a trend to develop in the UTR/LTR and play the long/short trend.  If we have a test, or a slight BO that fails, we look for a reversal and play the contra trend to the BOT tested.  Simple enough:  long/short the break with trend, or short/long the FBO with a reversal trend.

But we will see trading days that will will develop into price movements that trend from low to high or high to low:  an intra-range day (ITR) often settling close to the middle target.  In an ITR day, we will look for trade set ups inside each range zone.  Favored trades will be:

1. look for channel plays
2. look for 50% control candles
3. look for intra-range wedges/triangle for breakouts
4. look for EMA failures and flips

The standard chart setup is to follow the 5m  and a 2 point range chart.  The range is added, as  a narrow focus only on the 5m can at times become the "trees" and not the forest; and there is additional information needed to identify the possible trade directions.

TODAY:  ES

The ES is the vehicle used today, but the techniques are applicable to any trading instrument.

PLAYING THE RANGE CHART:

The long BOT was challenged soon after it was posted.  The FBO became the first test, and the declining slope of the bar tops indicates a short (the reversal play discussed above) is preferred at the open.  We see  a 2 leg push down that establishes the lower TL for a possible channel (developed as day continued).  The first leg is very close to the 50% level of b5  which is considered a control bar.  Thus a long entry is suggested by the support line or at the top of b3, both near that "50%" area.

The next area of interest is the failure of price at the long BOT, and the TL  from the #1 push.

1. a short at the BOT is acceptable with the TL as the stop.  Support for this trade was the top body of b1 was approximately at the prior lows of the pre-open.  Additional support for the trade, #2 is developing as a lower high from point #1.
2. continue to short TL top, and long the support at/near the mid BOT and lower TL
3. by b29-30 the support line above the mid BOT is broken and it becomes a resistance line above the mid BOT.
4. the gaps are showing bullish interest. Gap2 is a stronger bull TL, but both fail to break the established Resistance.

The 5m chart tells a story too.  Your job as a successful trader is to follow the story.  The more you read, the better you get at trading the story.

We begin with a flip.  Flips are where the EMA goes from support to resistance and vice-versa.

1. we see a flip in the pre-open.  This is a short by b1 with a stop at/near 50% of b2 (considered a control bar).  B5 complete leg 2.  B5 is a bear control, and longs at the 50% level are acceptable if you can identify that a low appears to be in place (b2-5).  The opposite thought applies to a bull control bar.
2. the long BOT fails, providing a short opportunity. B11 become a bear control bar. 
3. at/near 50% of a control bar is important.  In this case it is near the prior low too.  This is where traders will 1) set a stop, 2) set a long also, i.e. an exit/entry.  Exit/entry (or continue in play) only when a prior low/high is identified.  The white line identifies this area of interest, and we see numerous 50% plays developed.
4. Buyers at b12-20-27-32 create a lower TL.  We have a wedge or triangle developing and a significant BO is expected.  B34 creates this opportunity.
5. the sell off runs to approximately 50% of the trading range, the mid BOT to the short BOT.
6. b48-66 we see a bull channel.  For those in the trading room, we were very interested in the channel break at the mid BOT and the EMA, with a short to the 50% level support between the mid and lower BOT.
7. the continued  failure of price to break the mid range (and prior low), was supportive of a long back to the mid BOT.

Two charts, two stories.  An excellent day for trading.

TRADING RANGES WITH DIFFERENT CHARTS

Your can use the BOTs (break out targets) trading ranges on different chart settings.  Each chart can provide details about the market.  Support and Resistance, exhausting runs, double topping or bottoms all are identified with ranges, and they can help identify likely exit points. 

Most traders seem to favor some variation on the 5m, or use tick charts.  Today, we used the 5m and a 8t range bar chart.



TODAY:  ES


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1. There was a low around 8 AM, with a strong long entry at the lower target and EMA.
2. EMA acting as support into open.
3. Failed long BO  news push to the lower target support.  Another strong entry long.
4. Price was bouncing at the EMA in a wedge pattern, with a consolidating pattern b28-41.
5. Long BOT support but EMA FBO.  Switch in EMA from support to resistance.
6. Shorts exit at mid and lower BOT
7. Double bottom low from AM.  Reversal with a target of reaching the mid trading range.

Two point, range chart:

Technical entry points are where you can join the professionals that have started the movement in the market.  It will always be a better trade with the market.  Note I am saying with the trend.  At the entry you do not know if it is a scalp or if the market will run creating a trend.    If you are entering a PB for a second leg, then you have some history to suggest the leg 1 trend will continue.

The technical entry points are found near the range targets, and will have exits at/near the targets or the EMA.  These exist for all markets,   the ES is shown as an example.

BOTS MEASURE STRENGTH OF MARKET

Today was a special day.  Up early because market was looking for a major move.  The BOTS were prepared, and posted to various chat rooms by 7:20 AM.  The wait was not LONG.  Greece.

The short BOTS hit.  There were no longs until bar 54, which hit our targets, and were reversal shorts.



TODAY:  BOTS MEASURE MKT STRENGTH

Normally you only see the current day BOTS (break out targets) and a discussion of the daily action.  They work, and there is an indication that more people are using them as a guide to the market.  A few indicate that the long or short is held until mid day, if not longer.

But the BOTS have a bigger picture.  They can measure the strength of the market move.  Today, we see three short targets broken.  6/14 and 6/13 levels have been left on the chart for your review.  Bull PB's were contained by the next higher BOT.

BOTs are trading ranges calculated before the market opens.  They provide a look at the price action as it enters upper and lower ranges.  A break out is considered important and a trend is expected.  That trend today was very strong.  Some scoff at the name.  If it helps, think of it as the Upper Trading Range (UTL) above the middle, and the Lower Trading Range (LTR) below the middle target.  And yes, I know it is not the exact mid point between the top and bottom.  Call it the center, or "between" line. If it is available, it serves a purpose.

A better approach, why don't you embrace it, try it.

WHEN PLANS FLOP- PUNT AND KEEP TRADING

It was going so well.  Had sound, had picture, had a dummy run to test everything.  Today, egg on face flop.  Error messages about room full.  Punt.

Did open up join.me link and used the room chat.  My apology for the launch mishap, but better days are ahead.



TODAY:  YM  ES NQ TF

ES, like the others, quickly  tested the long BOT in pre-open.  Per our discussions, we would look for the PB to the 50% level of the bull control bar.  That was roughly the long BOT and the EMA.  Price actually moved a little faster.  Had expected the PB in b1  then a reversal around 3-4, but the general action was in place.

The strategy is:  look for a failed BO with a reversing trend, or look for the test and the continuation of the bull trend.  In either event, the move across the BOT is expected to be followed with a trend.

+7 and +8 were expected to be exit point, the +8 was deemed stronger and all BOT holds were a market exit at 13:32 PM at bar 49.


LONG BOTS                        MKT EXITS (BLUE LINES)

YM  11970                                  12044
ES    1277.5                                 1285.5
NQ   2236                                    2251
TF    781.8                                   792.4

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TREND LINES AND BOT LINES

When a bull or bear trend line is noticed, watch where it will cross a BOT target.  If price is coming into that TL-BOT area, we are expecting a strong move.  Another entry that is favored, the PB  in price to the 50% level of a control bar.



TODAY:  ES AND 6E

The ES started with a long at b2 with EMA support and a BO at the long target.  Price was consolidating near the EMA, with resistance around 1271.  B14 was a short with multi-chart confirmation.

The first major PB to the EMA was a long with the EMA as the target.  B24-25 establishes the bear TL ans is an EMA FBO.  The MAXT b38-39 at the EMA is a short setup.  It is at the TL and EMA, and expected to break the lower BOT (short target).

B43 is a bear control bar.  We discussed this play in the room:  at the 50% level the PB attracted stronger buyer interest.  It was our long with a partial exit planned at the EMA and the balance at the middle BOT.  This play was cross referenced for longs in YM, ES, NQ, and TF.

The break of the TL at the EMA at the BOT is a strong buy signal.  B54 broke the MAXT level suggesting price would test the upper BOT.  It did.




6E

The 6E had a similar price pattern today.  Other than the BOT plays, the following were available:

1. B2 break at the mid BOT and EMA.  Cross referenced to multi-charts.
2. B15 break of the consolidating lows when price hit resistance at 4364.
3. B23-34 has multiple MAXT and EMA hold for shorting.
4. B45 is at 50% reversal of the bear control bar, and is a multi-chart confirmed long due to buyer strength.
5. B54 is a long BOT BO.

A CONFIRMED SHORT

The market was screaming short at the open, and it was confirmed in the three major markets.  The short BOT was broken.  You can fill in the rest.  It's KISS Friday.  Keep it simple and SHORT.

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The break out targets (BOTS) are set and you can find them on the BOT Pages by 7:30 AM EST.

YM breaks at the open on bar 1.  ES and NQ test the mid BOT and fail, then break the short target on bar 2 and 5 respectively.

When you exit is your personal preference, but I would hope you will try the BOTS as a guide to consider for your entries.


YM      short BOT         12000              bar 15 value           11911


ES                                 1275.5                                         1268.75


NQ                                2241.5                                         2230.25
                           

The day was not all short.  We were discussing the reversal developing with buy signals at bars 52-54  and the buy at b64 that was  developing as a resistor bar.

SPLIT TRADE DAY

If you follow the market long enough, your favorite trading instrument will flash a dud day:  small range, or it appears all the action was 30 minutes before you turned on your computer.  Your options are to wait it out (there will be another trade), walk away and enjoy the day, or look at the possibility of trading another instrument.

Today, was one of those split trading days.  The 6e was fantastic in pre-open, then fizzled,  nearly lifeless for the better part of the day trading below the short BOT.  The ES found energy and broke above the long BOT.

As announced in our chat room today,  a live webbie is planned for  next week.  Keep an eye on the blog for details.   The focus will be on charting for beginner or new traders, and those with smaller starter accounts.  The trades will be 1-2 contracts only, to reach a larger audience with a "real feel" to trading.


TODAY:  6E AND ES

The 6E had back-to-back resistor bars around 8:30 AM. Do a Goggle to see the electronic version and you will understand  why I coined this term.  Resistors mean change, and these two show a market manipulation by professionals.  Flat trading at the EMA and VWAP, and boom we have a 35 tick candle.  The classical short was b266 ( roughly equivalent to the top of b256) as price is in a PB to the EMA.  A secondary entry is b267 at the EMA.  #2 is the trailing stop discussed in the trading room, that was hit with b269.


ES

ES has a similar move in the pre-open, with a short at the long BOT with a trailing PB stop.

1. B2 hits the pre-open low for a DB.  The long (many took) was at b4-5 where price breaks the EMA, VWAP,and the LB (long BOT).  This is the first bull run- A.  if you missed the triple break (significant) the next entry is the LB first pull back (1PB).  This turned into a 2 leg push  that hit our trailing stop.
2. Next entry is the second PB.  The EMA is acting as support, and can be played until we see a 5 tick failure below the EMA, 5TF.  This is bull run B.  You should see a run,price "cools" then another run (either bull or bear).
3. We were discussing in the room it was about time for a +3 pop to give us a +10 from the LB.  The target was set at 93.5-94.25, and this was run C..  Since your looking at this section of the chart, notice the difference in the EMA action of b50-52 and b61-62 (failed EMA-) versus what happens at b70-72.  Bars 70 closes EMA- as does 71 and 72.  Since72 is a bull bar, it is reasonable to expect this to be an EMA failure and worth the risk of a 5tf short.  The more conservative 1PB short at b74-75 stopped below the EMA.

The daily BOT targets are posted by 7:30 AM EST.  Review the BOT Page for the YM, ES, NQ, 6E, and TF values.

NARROW RANGE BETWEEN THE BOT'S



In a narrow range day, price can spend energy floating between two of the targets, and either in the upper zone or the lower.  Since it is a narrow range day, the upper/lower break out become less successful.  The reversal move at the target becomes the trade of favor.

TODAY: ES AND 6E





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1. Market opens with a test of the long target, followed by a reversal below the EMA to a bullish TL from 6:45.
2. A higher low second long entry
3. continued failure at the long BOT, FBO's.
4. A stronger short, that breaks the area of the EMA, middle BOT, and the bullish TL
5. A double bottom Long (b54 and 59) with price consolidating at the 50% level of the zone ( mid bod -lower bot)/2 
6. Mid bot failure, also a lower high short opportunity.
7. An EMA failure short as price moves to complete the BOT range.

6E

 

1. The 6E began the day below the lower BOT, and we see a bullish trend crossing the EMA for a test of the BOT at the open.
2. Bullish TL with lower challenges from b1 to b13.  The EMA is the Resistance.
3. HL long that ends at
4. The LH reversal. 
5. Double low with b24
6. EMA failure short, also a LH
    

HOW TO USE THE BOTS

Today's action was a good example of using the break out targets (BOTS).  We use them:

1. to quickly gauge the market direction and bias.
2. to establish trade entries with the trend.
3. to enter a contra trade, but  one that has a higher probability of expanding into the new trend.
4. to quickly spot if all markets have a new or revived influx of  activity that begins buying or selling modes.

Number 1 is used to keep our focus upon the direction and bias of the market, with the intent of entering with trend trades.  A break of a BOT is favorable, and considered with trend.  The initial order can be (varies with the instrument) at the BOT, if you are willing to allow for a potential failed break out, or more conservatively at the first PB after the cross.  A failure is likely to reverse, and offers a contra play  which is deemed to be a higher quality CT as opposed to a PB between two or more legs of a trend.

At times, the markets can appear to move at the same  time as buyers and sellers enter.  This event host of factors could be from program trading, support/resistance traders, key levels, etc. If  some (or all) the markets begin moving at the same general bar or time period, it is used to evaluate an entry.  If this occurs at or near a BOT, the significant is higher.



TODAY:  YM  ES NQ  6E

Today the charts are presented for you to review and  make personal notes about price action at/near the BOTS.  The values are found on the BOT page and applied in pre-open for the US market.  Review the charts for BO, FBO, reversals,  and support and resistance at the target levels.

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A DAY OF FAILED MOVES

The markets continue to look for some confidence.  Each move today reached targets and failed.  Reversals would push, and fail.  The ES and 6E looked identical after the mid target failure, when both developed a bear channel.


TODAY:  ES AND 6E


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1. Key targets are set in the early A.M. in the pre-open. We moved to consolidation stage just prior to the open, with the mid target holding the bottom.  The open quickly moved to test the long BOT.  The first attempt tends to fail, and we prefer the first PB after the break.  Bar 3 was an extended bear "resistor" bar, and a long BOT ( 5t stop) short.  The mid target was now below the EMA, and was a continued hold,  add-on, or a new entry at b4.
2. Two probes to 1290 a key level.  Exit was at  b9 reversal to the short BOT.  Exits can follow 4-6-8-10 hits, and we see that in the bull bars 9 and 11.  The EMA failure was a short with a 5t stop.  You could take a partial at the lower bot,  and the expected test of the LOD.  Even the short BOT was good for +1 to +1.5.
3. Market has failed the long, the short, and now a reversal to the middle.  The price action is not optimal, and an entry short would test most traders as it consolidated at the middle zone.
4. The better trade was at #4 the failed EMA after the mid BOT failure (read first PB).  The bear channel is developing.  Aggressive longs will pay the lower TL at key exits, perceived or real, at 3-4 points, 5-6, etc.  below the mid BOT, then the short BOT.

1.  Break out targets set in pre-open.  These are listed on the BOT PAGE.  Price moves to the short and consolidates.
2. We have the first failure at the mid BOT, and a HL just below the EMA.
3. Bar 1 is a resistor bar near the long BOT, followed by doji bars.  Shorts are entering.
4. A test of the short (lower) BOT results in a failure and a double bottom by b16 and a HL bull at b18.
5. Similar to ES, we see a failure inside the consolidation at the mid bot, but shorting is a trial in patience.
6. The bear channel offers better entries at the EMA failures, and the short BOT.

FRIDAY: MARKET KISS

Friday is keep it simple and sweet.  The BOT's helped to take care of both requirements.


TODAY:  ES AND 6E


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The BOTs were set in the pre-open for the ES and the 6E.  As with Thursday, we see another mid range element.


ES:

1. Early test of the long target that fails.  We look for failures on the ES first attempt.
2. SHORT.  We have a break of the mid bot, the EMA-, and we have prior lows at 1307.25 broken.  It continues, and we see new or add-on shorts at the lower, or short, BOT.
3. (not shown) but is the consolidation at the bottom of the bear control bar.  See prior discussions, but a control bar sets the stage for the post control price action.
4. LONG.  A failed reversal bar at the EMA which is a PB bar for the second bull leg.  I call these "resistors"  after the electronic versions.  A perfect resistor is the bar immediately after the control bar.  B11-12 held at the EMA after bulls hit the 50% level of the control bar.
5. Price fails the mid BOT and reverses.  Consolidating at the short BOT.  Works as an aggressive short,with stop at b16+.
6. LONG.  A HL for a bull TL with a MAXT.
7. MAXT at mid BOT.  Failure to reach long BOT is significant.  Aggressive short, better is at 8.
8. SHORT.  Mid BOT -, EMA-, bull TL - with stop above the 6.5 area.
9. Selling trend, EMA failed BO's.

6E:

1. LONG.  Unlike the ES, the 6E is more co-operative in entering the first attempt of a target.
2. SHORT.  long BOT reversal, plus an EMA-
3. LONG.  The short BOT failure.
4. LONG.  Mid BOT+ and EMA+ good for continued hold, new adds or new entry.
5. LONG HOLD.  When there is no clear challenge to the EMA+, buyers will hold and liquidate as the market rises.
6. EXIT WATCH.  Nice bull pop away from the EMA+  and a BO attempt on the narrow bullish channel.  At this point, guesstimate the 50% level between current price and the current EMA.  Set you stop.  Congratulations.  That would be approximately +125 from the long BOT.

TODAY: ES & 6E

Posting the BOT pics in the AM is burdensome.  The current thought is to post the actual values.  Opinions are welcomed before we change the format.

Today, we follow the numbers again to identify key points.  For trades and alerts, join us on the Mirc Othernet  chat  #chartmaster.



TODAY:  ES AND 6E

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The BOTs were set this AM, but we see that a mid level was needed for both the ES and the 6E.

1. A short is indicated.  The EMA is holding price negative, there is a 5t failure should price hit the 30 minute high, and price is near the middle target.  It is suggesting a move away from the long BOT, and we generally see a move across the bot range.
2. Pushes higher (we get 3) that fail below the long bot.  Short pressure.
3. Bear close at the EMA and mid bot.  has a 5t failure to the pre-open high, and is a short.  Short at the short bot was valid.  The reversal of the bot is also a valid long.
4. We have a reversal, a HL, and expected third push for the long.
5. EMA PB in a bear run at the mid bot.  This is expected to develop a second leg down.
6. A double bottom s/r that breaks, considered a short continuation or a new entry.
7. Bull TL developing at mid day, with a long at the EMA and short bot reversal.
8. Trapping price action  between the mid bot and EMA.  In real time, suggest that we wait for a break out and enter the PB.  This was at 13.5 area of b57.
9. 1t (2t to be sure) fail to hit the +3 target near the #2 pushes, and hit the stop.  EMA lower bot support, price returned for a double high, to settle inside the BOT range.

6E

The 6E was in a narrow bear channel following the BOT set.

1. Bear double top TL  at the open, both failed channel breakouts.  Also the reversal of the BO for a b3 short.
2. The second short at the EMA and near the mid bot, and trend to the lower short bot, which fails.  We have run the entire range.  The short bot failure suggests we see higher price action.
3. The bullish TL support higher price too.
4. Long the EMA after the mid bot PB, and at the bull TL.
5. Continuation long or new entry at the long bot break.
6. and the failure short.  Exit at the consolidation at the end, or a stop approximately 50% between the  EMA  and price, trailing the current price.

BREAK & TREND (AGAIN)

Today was our first day to post the daily BOTs in the blog.  See the DAILY BOT page for this information.  The Wednesday ES and 6E BOTs  were the same as those for Tuesday.  Although the overnight and Euro Zone price action was good, the BOTs are set in the pre-open for the markets, and that price action provided no change for the BOT Range.

We have repeatedly stated that when a break out target (BOT) hits and breaks, we will expect a trend to follow, provided it is not a failed break (FBO).  Today's trend was extensive for the ES, and the 6E provide both long and short opportunities. Trades have been removed, to focus on key points in the day.  Trades, and alerts to potential trades, are provided in the chat rooms.


TODAY:  ES AND 6E


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Zero is the BOTs set in the pre-open time. At point

1.   we see a failure to test the upper (or long) BOT, and the 20-EMA fails.  This was followed by the nearly five point selloff control bar. 
2. Price consolidates and fails to reverse the short target.  Price runs below the EMA in a bear channel.
3. we see a failure (MAXT). 
4. The EMA continues to be resistance in the #4 area.
5. we see another FBO.

Pick your short.  There were numerous opportunities for the entry.



6E

The long and short break outs are set, and unchanged from the prior day (0).

1. The first BO is a long, and the price fails to test the low bot around 9AM EST, and follows the EMA in a bull channel.
2. Second BO play
3. The EMA held at b10, and was a long with a stop above b12 and the long BOT.  The failure at b14-15 allowed a short to the EMA.
4. EMA and long BOT play
5. EMA and long BOT play
6. An EMA/long BOT failure becomes a short.
7. An EMA and bear channel failure at the lower (short) BOT.  The EMA becomes a strong resistance, as the 6E continues to sell.

There was a comment today about the "wide range" for the 6E.  They are what the market allows.  If you have no other play, consider using the BOTs.  I will leave the count to you had you taken the short BOT;  6e or ES.