Thursday, June 9, 2011

SPLIT TRADE DAY

If you follow the market long enough, your favorite trading instrument will flash a dud day:  small range, or it appears all the action was 30 minutes before you turned on your computer.  Your options are to wait it out (there will be another trade), walk away and enjoy the day, or look at the possibility of trading another instrument.

Today, was one of those split trading days.  The 6e was fantastic in pre-open, then fizzled,  nearly lifeless for the better part of the day trading below the short BOT.  The ES found energy and broke above the long BOT.

As announced in our chat room today,  a live webbie is planned for  next week.  Keep an eye on the blog for details.   The focus will be on charting for beginner or new traders, and those with smaller starter accounts.  The trades will be 1-2 contracts only, to reach a larger audience with a "real feel" to trading.


TODAY:  6E AND ES

The 6E had back-to-back resistor bars around 8:30 AM. Do a Goggle to see the electronic version and you will understand  why I coined this term.  Resistors mean change, and these two show a market manipulation by professionals.  Flat trading at the EMA and VWAP, and boom we have a 35 tick candle.  The classical short was b266 ( roughly equivalent to the top of b256) as price is in a PB to the EMA.  A secondary entry is b267 at the EMA.  #2 is the trailing stop discussed in the trading room, that was hit with b269.


ES



ES has a similar move in the pre-open, with a short at the long BOT with a trailing PB stop.

  1. B2 hits the pre-open low for a DB.  The long (many took) was at b4-5 where price breaks the EMA, VWAP,and the LB (long BOT).  This is the first bull run- A.  if you missed the triple break (significant) the next entry is the LB first pull back (1PB).  This turned into a 2 leg push  that hit our trailing stop.
  2. Next entry is the second PB.  The EMA is acting as support, and can be played until we see a 5 tick failure below the EMA, 5TF.  This is bull run B.  You should see a run,price "cools" then another run (either bull or bear).
  3. We were discussing in the room it was about time for a +3 pop to give us a +10 from the LB.  The target was set at 93.5-94.25, and this was run C..  Since your looking at this section of the chart, notice the difference in the EMA action of b50-52 and b61-62 (failed EMA-) versus what happens at b70-72.  Bars 70 closes EMA- as does 71 and 72.  Since72 is a bull bar, it is reasonable to expect this to be an EMA failure and worth the risk of a 5tf short.  The more conservative 1PB short at b74-75 stopped below the EMA.
The daily BOT targets are posted by 7:30 AM EST.  Review the BOT Page for the YM, ES, NQ, 6E, and TF values.

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