8/20/12
8/21/12
8/22/12
8/23/12
8/24/12
Friday, August 24, 2012
Thursday, August 16, 2012
RANGE BOUND TO EXPANSION 8/16/12
BOT TRADING SYSTEM
PA will run in a range for x ti e before breaking out for a new extended run. The range may be narrow for daily efforts to a wider weekly range. Either way, consolidating action is followed by a move in the market. Today we got that move and it was expected:
Last evening
[16:28] <CM> not much change for the ES daily small range bars at resistance looking nice for an extended move..
And the BoT Levels for today
[07:53] <CM> the areas to watch today for LB SB (chart deleted)
[07:54] <CM> 1406.8 (1407) 1403.28 (1403.25) mid area at 1405
Range identified; signals for the buyers and a reversal at the SB: a range run followed by a BO5.
PA will run in a range for x ti e before breaking out for a new extended run. The range may be narrow for daily efforts to a wider weekly range. Either way, consolidating action is followed by a move in the market. Today we got that move and it was expected:
Last evening
[16:28] <CM> not much change for the ES daily small range bars at resistance looking nice for an extended move..
And the BoT Levels for today
[07:53] <CM> the areas to watch today for LB SB (chart deleted)
[07:54] <CM> 1406.8 (1407) 1403.28 (1403.25) mid area at 1405
Range identified; signals for the buyers and a reversal at the SB: a range run followed by a BO5.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
EARLY RANGE, BO, LATE RANGE FOR PA 8/15/12
BOT TRADING SYSTEM
PA began in a tight range, broke the TL discussed in the pre open chat, broke the LB for a nice BO to another resistance level that has prevailed into after hours trading.
The signals measure the support and resistance, the BoT levels the optimal price where either side is expected to prevail over the other. Today that bias was for the bull.
PA began in a tight range, broke the TL discussed in the pre open chat, broke the LB for a nice BO to another resistance level that has prevailed into after hours trading.
The signals measure the support and resistance, the BoT levels the optimal price where either side is expected to prevail over the other. Today that bias was for the bull.
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
EARLY PA REVERSAL RUNS RANGE TO BO5 8/14/12
BOT TRADING SYSTEM
Early PA hits major BoT resistance, runs the range and pushes down to the BO5 level. Selling continued into after hours.
Early PA hits major BoT resistance, runs the range and pushes down to the BO5 level. Selling continued into after hours.
Monday, August 13, 2012
BoT S/R PART 2 8/13/12
BOT TRADING SYSTEM
We had overnight action that created more support and resistance levels. Our focus has been on double signals only, not the singles.
PA hit a back-to-back double early in the AM, and shorts were suggested in the chat. Partials were taken at a lower support, with the Short BoT as the ultimate target. PA was expected to do follow two scenarios at the US open: bounce at the SB , PB, then continue long, or push through the short and have a PB to continue the short.
PA headed down toward the BO5 level and another buy signal. Signals at key levels are considered lower risk entries not to be ignored. The long was rewarded by a bullish TL that hit at the 50CB's of bull bars where additional buyers entered supporting the bull trend.
Exits near the end, and a new buy to finish with another HOD test of the1402.25 area.
We had overnight action that created more support and resistance levels. Our focus has been on double signals only, not the singles.
PA hit a back-to-back double early in the AM, and shorts were suggested in the chat. Partials were taken at a lower support, with the Short BoT as the ultimate target. PA was expected to do follow two scenarios at the US open: bounce at the SB , PB, then continue long, or push through the short and have a PB to continue the short.
PA headed down toward the BO5 level and another buy signal. Signals at key levels are considered lower risk entries not to be ignored. The long was rewarded by a bullish TL that hit at the 50CB's of bull bars where additional buyers entered supporting the bull trend.
Exits near the end, and a new buy to finish with another HOD test of the1402.25 area.
Saturday, August 11, 2012
A LOOK AT BoT S/R LEVELS 8/10/12
BOT TRADING SYSTEM
ALL BoT lines removed, all text, etc. Just a clean look at a play being developed: the BoT support/resistance entry.
BSR:
1. look for trend, bull , bear, sideways
2. look for double signals only. They will be current support/resistance
3. long above resistance
4. Short below support
5. look for entry to play a PB to a prior level.
6. In trending day, consider partial exit with runner to higher signal area(s).
ALL BoT lines removed, all text, etc. Just a clean look at a play being developed: the BoT support/resistance entry.
BSR:
1. look for trend, bull , bear, sideways
2. look for double signals only. They will be current support/resistance
3. long above resistance
4. Short below support
5. look for entry to play a PB to a prior level.
6. In trending day, consider partial exit with runner to higher signal area(s).
Friday, August 10, 2012
RANGE BOUND & WAITING FOR A BO 8/10/12
BOT TRADING SYSTEM
Price Action (PA) started at the Long BoT LB but failed to run the range to the Short. Hindsight, did not start at the open, B2-3 was a PB continuation short just above the LB. B2 had other information; it showed bull support above the short bias at the SB and was an aggressive entry for a long. The risk was a move to the SB.
Bars 5, 6, and 8 were rule entries for longs with an additional long rule at b10. Exits were seen just below and at the BO5 level ( LB+5 points).
An ascending triangle developed with a top at the BO5 level. More sideways PA with a slight bull bias (running about LB+3) and testing the BO5 with multiple hits to finally break in the late afternoon.
Once we have a break, the focus is on a run to the BO10. B45 buyers would want a +5 trade which gets us to 1401.5 area. the BO10 was at 1403.25. Two reasons to support the run.
An interesting PA developed around the bar 71-74 area. We have bear resistance around 1400.25 and, as it turned out, roughly the 50CB level of bar 75 bull. This creates two Limit Entry opportunities to watch:
1. The RF play. Did not have a name for the play but it was noticed by another, so give credit where earned. The first option enter a buy above B74 bear (short/sell) resistance signal. This allows an opportunity for a BO play. Your stop would be the most recent prior bull 50CB not tested. In this case, the EMA or B68 50CB (98.75) or the BO5 at 1398.25.
2. The second option would be to respect the resistance and enter a short below B74 with a stop above the resistance per your limits.
Price Action (PA) started at the Long BoT LB but failed to run the range to the Short. Hindsight, did not start at the open, B2-3 was a PB continuation short just above the LB. B2 had other information; it showed bull support above the short bias at the SB and was an aggressive entry for a long. The risk was a move to the SB.
Bars 5, 6, and 8 were rule entries for longs with an additional long rule at b10. Exits were seen just below and at the BO5 level ( LB+5 points).
An ascending triangle developed with a top at the BO5 level. More sideways PA with a slight bull bias (running about LB+3) and testing the BO5 with multiple hits to finally break in the late afternoon.
Once we have a break, the focus is on a run to the BO10. B45 buyers would want a +5 trade which gets us to 1401.5 area. the BO10 was at 1403.25. Two reasons to support the run.
An interesting PA developed around the bar 71-74 area. We have bear resistance around 1400.25 and, as it turned out, roughly the 50CB level of bar 75 bull. This creates two Limit Entry opportunities to watch:
1. The RF play. Did not have a name for the play but it was noticed by another, so give credit where earned. The first option enter a buy above B74 bear (short/sell) resistance signal. This allows an opportunity for a BO play. Your stop would be the most recent prior bull 50CB not tested. In this case, the EMA or B68 50CB (98.75) or the BO5 at 1398.25.
2. The second option would be to respect the resistance and enter a short below B74 with a stop above the resistance per your limits.
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
BUYING THE BEAR TL V BUYING THE BULL TL 8/8/12
BOT TRADING SYSTEM
THERE will always be buyers and sellers. Without each, there would be no market. Even in a bear trend there will be buyers and in a bull trend-sellers. These counter trend actions can be haphazardly played, or they can be done with a logical entry.
Today we had the opportunity to enter quality trades- either long or short with a pre-open bear TL and a market opening bull TL. The point, pick the reason other traders would take an action. Where are they likely to enter or exit. Follow Price Action (PA) long enough you should begin to read the market. That is the essence of Break Out Targets (BoT's). Putting the "why" with the "where" to improve overall trading performance.
[07:11] <CM> the bull and bear s/r levels continued to shift in over night trading. we now have a resist at 1395.25 and a support at 1392.25 with a minor fbo to 1392 (screen shot deleted)
[07:12] <CM> es long 92-93.5 with upper limits around 98-1400 (BO5)
ES TODAY:
pre mkt to open
open to close
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
DAY 2 BULL AM AND BEAR PM 8/7/12
BOT TRADING SYSTEM
Bulls in the morning with bear sellers in the afternoon. The NQ from yesterday is almost identical.
We see an early buy signal at/near the US Open and a buy TL develop. This TL is roughly 45 degrees and regarded as a stable extended run for the dominant position. As we approach Break Out Target levels the markets put in a reversal with targets in a range equivalent to B23-24.
No major financial news today, but a nice TRACY pattern. That is "news" that should not be taken lightly. It plays nicely.
Charts for today:
Bulls in the morning with bear sellers in the afternoon. The NQ from yesterday is almost identical.
We see an early buy signal at/near the US Open and a buy TL develop. This TL is roughly 45 degrees and regarded as a stable extended run for the dominant position. As we approach Break Out Target levels the markets put in a reversal with targets in a range equivalent to B23-24.
[12:46] <CM> nq a maxt (regarded as a potential for a reversal)
[12:49] <CM> need an ema touch..
[12:51] <x> u s already?
[12:53] <CM> like 1403 2721 13159 804.5
[12:51] <x> u s already?
[12:53] <CM> like 1403 2721 13159 804.5
[12:56] <CM> (x) we had a prior pb no ema this one should hit after pa ran into upper resistance and y shorts are in
[13:02] <CM> nq should hit around that left shoulder 2719-18 tf 803.5-803
Targets were set to the B23-24 area, with a little play on a non-news day.
[13:10]
<CM> for us to go to b22-23 lows would require some (deleted)
news hitting the fan so a runner will always be held open should fan be
turned on...
No major financial news today, but a nice TRACY pattern. That is "news" that should not be taken lightly. It plays nicely.
Charts for today:
Monday, August 6, 2012
NARROW RANGE AFTER INITIAL BULL MOVE 8/6/12
BOT TRADING SYSTEM
The early long to the resistance area appear to be setting up a bullish day and break the string of Bear Mondays after Bull Fridays. By the end of the day, the bulls had a different plan, as PA hovered in a narrow price range after the initial bull move.
A similar pattern was seen across the markets: PA stalling at the resistance and playing a sideways channel melody. NQ was a loner and continued to climb the lower TL of an ascending triangle pattern.
The AM trade areas became PM trade area when PA began to stall again near the upper ranges.
The yellow bar is the upper resistance, and the blue line was the short BO barrier.
NQ
ES
TF
YM
Friday, August 3, 2012
THE 8/2/12 BO LEVELS BREAK 8/3/12
BOT TRADING SYSTEM
YESTERDAY we discussed the need for PA to test lower levels to extract all shorts and find bull support. Today the upper limits PA tested yesterday were broken.
The bias today was long from the open. Actually, we were long from the 1354 support and still had a long bias entering the US Open.
[08:30] <CM> BoTTERS are long from 54 and looking for 84 test (chart deleted)
[08:35] <CM> 6e tested the 50cb b23 ema support look for another leg for bulls not interested in short there until 2160 test (chart deleted)
[08:41] <CM> RF +10 6e as we speak...
[08:42] <CM> +20
[08:43] <CM> 2284 +30
[08:43] <CM> buys taking exits 6e
Question was ask "how do you know" and a 1m chart with sell signals was provided. However, it was a 1m chart and normally will exit part on 1m but balance waits for the 5m to sell.
[08:46] <CM> pb for more long initial exits until 5m sells
6E
ES TODAY:
YESTERDAY we discussed the need for PA to test lower levels to extract all shorts and find bull support. Today the upper limits PA tested yesterday were broken.
The bias today was long from the open. Actually, we were long from the 1354 support and still had a long bias entering the US Open.
[08:30] <CM> BoTTERS are long from 54 and looking for 84 test (chart deleted)
[08:32] <CM> don't be shocked at 88-92 attempt
[08:41] <CM> RF +10 6e as we speak...
[08:42] <CM> +20
[08:43] <CM> 2284 +30
[08:43] <CM> buys taking exits 6e
Question was ask "how do you know" and a 1m chart with sell signals was provided. However, it was a 1m chart and normally will exit part on 1m but balance waits for the 5m to sell.
[08:46] <CM> pb for more long initial exits until 5m sells
6E
ES TODAY:
Thursday, August 2, 2012
TEST LEVELS VS. FBO LEVELS 8/2/12
BOT TRADING SYSTEM
WE have seen two selling back to the 1270 area with rebounds. The problem was the rebound, it simple could not hold about the Long BoT nor the aggressive short that developed Wednesday. (see prior post).
[07:42] with the continued stress on the lower level and a failure to exceed the upper BoT, it seems that the lower must be broken in another test to extract all sellers until a firm bull support can be detected. News continues, and it has not been positive. The FED inaction, while neutral in content, was not neutral for the market. Earnings will not pull this out until a firmer bottom support is found.
Get market news before the market with the Bot Newsletter.
If hope, EuroZone News. and US News pushed the market up, then no "new" news will act like negative news and push the market down, This is nothing new. Market will always seek a better price entry for bulls and bears. While 1370 was nice for two days, the bulls would need a lower support to garner interest. That support is around the seemingly magical 1350.
60 Minute Look:
B23-24 formed a MAXT, a PA exhaustion pattern that will often reverse, and in this case, the reversal continued to develop a bearish Control Bar. The best bulls could do? Test the 50CB level and sell again to a lower support that found bulls at 1352-54.
Similar, yet a better view for the MAXT that reversed two bars and broke Bot levels. Again, a 50CB test and FBO , with additional selling to support.
5 minute look:
Failure at the upper range and the Aggressive Short. By the US open the damage was done, and bulls could only test the 50CB level. All these point to the importance of a 24 hour look rather than Rth charting. Charts are 24 hour. Anything less simple does not tell the full story.
WE have seen two selling back to the 1270 area with rebounds. The problem was the rebound, it simple could not hold about the Long BoT nor the aggressive short that developed Wednesday. (see prior post).
[07:42] with the continued stress on the lower level and a failure to exceed the upper BoT, it seems that the lower must be broken in another test to extract all sellers until a firm bull support can be detected. News continues, and it has not been positive. The FED inaction, while neutral in content, was not neutral for the market. Earnings will not pull this out until a firmer bottom support is found.
Get market news before the market with the Bot Newsletter.
If hope, EuroZone News. and US News pushed the market up, then no "new" news will act like negative news and push the market down, This is nothing new. Market will always seek a better price entry for bulls and bears. While 1370 was nice for two days, the bulls would need a lower support to garner interest. That support is around the seemingly magical 1350.
60 Minute Look:
B23-24 formed a MAXT, a PA exhaustion pattern that will often reverse, and in this case, the reversal continued to develop a bearish Control Bar. The best bulls could do? Test the 50CB level and sell again to a lower support that found bulls at 1352-54.
30 minute chart:
Similar, yet a better view for the MAXT that reversed two bars and broke Bot levels. Again, a 50CB test and FBO , with additional selling to support.
5 minute look:
Failure at the upper range and the Aggressive Short. By the US open the damage was done, and bulls could only test the 50CB level. All these point to the importance of a 24 hour look rather than Rth charting. Charts are 24 hour. Anything less simple does not tell the full story.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
FOLLOW THE PLAN & BoT PA 8/1/12
BOT TRADING SYSTEM
1370 was the preferred buy area for longs as they ran PA to roughly +9 in overnight trading and to +10 just prior to the US Open.
The plan for the day would be to watch for a direction with a FBO reversal, i.e. bear selling reversing to bull buying. We saw that in the first two hours of the market as PA ran the ranges selling and buying.
B1 actually was outside the range and it was B2 that broke short into the range. It was B2 that also established a 50CB that was regarded as an aggressive short for the day, as PA struggled to go Long BoT BO.
The PM alert was simple: watch PA for a bait and switch by professionals. PA begins a move and they quickly reverse the action. This reversal is fueled by 1. wrong side stop outs/exits, and 2. jump on the bandwagon.
Some aggressive longs scored in the PM (2 PM area EST) as PA bounced at the Short BoT and once again PA runs to the B2 50CB: the switch. Bears got their SB5 this time.
At the end of the day, we are back in favorable buy areas. (see 7/31/12 post).
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