PLAY THE RANGE, PLAY THE SHIFT, PLAY THE PULLBACK FOR CONFIDENCE 11/15/13

PART 3 in the recent series is Play the Pullback for Confidence.  We had a range, we had the market shift.  Next is a move by the market for confidence to prior support in a bull trend, resistance in a bear trend.

Euro Zone look:   [03:33] <CM> resist at 91  see if es will pb to test support  from the over bought area  t1 87 t2 84-82

Market was over bought from the FED news and likely to PB to a confidence level.  Those levels were Target 1 (1787) and T2 in the 84-82 area.  You can not watch the market 24/5.

 If it moves while away, play again on another day.

  If the fundamentals are unchanged when you return, get ready to take your turn!

And the decision was: market is unchanged look for the trade.

[08:01] <CM> the 2 point bar chart shows the T1 T2 that has developed  (chart removed)
[08:02] <CM> play safe in the street!

the market hit 1788 and drifted back to the 91 resistance area.  Reason(s) to enter, reason(s) to go away from  a multi-chart look.

THE MARKET SHIFT 11/14/13

In our last post we stated "Play the range until we see a market shift".  Well, it did not take long for that to play.  Range bound range runs with a BO-5 and then the shift.

This is a 2 point bar chart and you can see the play inside the range and the SB Break out to support.  This was a BO-5 area.  When PA holds at the BO-5 we expect a return to the range.

This occurred, and we see the range run for the opposite break out.  Note on this BO we did not see the selling pressure (red arrows) when PA was trapping inside the range.

PLAY THE RANGE UNTIL MARKET SHIFTS 11/12/13

HAPPY 111213. One more to go at 12/13/14.

10:20 AM EST

The strong range is the game until PA breaks.  The range in question is the 1763-1768.  US was sluggish this AM as the market was watching the FED  while the professionals took the sheep up toward the range top and descended faster than the Tower of Terror.

Multiply looks showing some weakness, pull the trigger when you know the upside risk  for a short, downside risk for a long.

5 minute, 1024 Tick and the 2 point range bar

and the quick exit at moving support, and to get out of the way from potential chop in a range bound opening.

PM NOTE

PA continued to range run for the day and broke to the BO-5 area and returned into range.  Also note the two major 50CB's and the test patterns that developed.

The first 50CB was tested and had a FBO, suggesting more selling in the range.  We also see a gap to the upper part of the range, another weakness signal.  After the BO-5 run, PA rose to test the second major 50CB

SELLING BREAKS SHORT BUT MARKET STILL IN BALANCE 11/7/13

PA broke the SB (Short BOT) and ran to the prior support area.  Nice trading day, and gurus  will be flocking to be the first to write off the market.  But. at a closer look, we pushed roughly +4 above the upper range (LB) then ran the range for a SBBO to approximately +4 below the prior support.

Essentially, a balance performance +4 to -4 in a range that has been developing.  The char is the 30M to help you see the range.

While near our upper target for the year, this market is still long bias.  The daily is off the 20EMA and above prior resistance turned major support in the 1720 area.  It would be nice to see money foaming at the mouth and jubilation in every mom & pop investment group. At least it would seem to help to get a clear top in.

TIME: A CRITICAL FACTOR TO A TRADE 11/5/13

Here are two examples of a similar trade.  One a short move and the other a long move.  In both cases, the market was telling a story of moving in the opposite direction.  One critical difference?  The time element involved.

The first was an overnight selling where PA is lethargic, slow to develop.  The long, a reversal for a one leg that moved quickly, and followed by another push leg after the pullback exit.

You read a trade, you execute, and wait on time, a precious commodity in trading.

Now, a break.  The best time of all...

PLAYING THE BIAS WITH SUPPORT & BREAK OUTS 11/1/13

Everyone has a bias, thus the bulls versus the bears battle continues and briefly will find an equilibrium point.  Last evening Support was developing and the market bias was still bullish.  The evaluation/ go with the bounce from support.  By the US Open, we had a wedge (ascending triangle type) showing favor for the bull, but certainly on the lookout for a bear surprise.

[21:12] <CM> back to the 63-53  thinking we still have another move for the bulls.  from the 10/3 blog  " A settlement will occur, and buyers will have their better price for the Q4 run into the 1700's.  We still stand by the 1734 area and now see a possibility of 1768".  we are there, and the 60-80 area is seen as the high.  a fed easing in jan + another debt show down would be good for bear season..  (chart deleted)

[21:23] <CM> 54.5 buyers will look for 57.5 to break # of ma's  would open door for 61 test

[00:06] <CM> 60m chart
[00:14] <CM> L 51.75 see what happens...

[07:43] <CM> bullish channel albeit not as strong as some would prefer.  still looking for the 57 test  (chart deleted)
[07:49] <CM> the 34m wedge with the bear fbo watch  could happen, but still have bull bias  (chart below)


Upper 50CB target, with a resistance noted around 57

Letting the opening stream work the trade...

10:15 AM EST UPDATE

50CB hit...

Now, time for the weekend.  Play safe in the street!