A DAY OF FAILED MOVES

The markets continue to look for some confidence.  Each move today reached targets and failed.  Reversals would push, and fail.  The ES and 6E looked identical after the mid target failure, when both developed a bear channel.


TODAY:  ES AND 6E


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1. Key targets are set in the early A.M. in the pre-open. We moved to consolidation stage just prior to the open, with the mid target holding the bottom.  The open quickly moved to test the long BOT.  The first attempt tends to fail, and we prefer the first PB after the break.  Bar 3 was an extended bear "resistor" bar, and a long BOT ( 5t stop) short.  The mid target was now below the EMA, and was a continued hold,  add-on, or a new entry at b4.
2. Two probes to 1290 a key level.  Exit was at  b9 reversal to the short BOT.  Exits can follow 4-6-8-10 hits, and we see that in the bull bars 9 and 11.  The EMA failure was a short with a 5t stop.  You could take a partial at the lower bot,  and the expected test of the LOD.  Even the short BOT was good for +1 to +1.5.
3. Market has failed the long, the short, and now a reversal to the middle.  The price action is not optimal, and an entry short would test most traders as it consolidated at the middle zone.
4. The better trade was at #4 the failed EMA after the mid BOT failure (read first PB).  The bear channel is developing.  Aggressive longs will pay the lower TL at key exits, perceived or real, at 3-4 points, 5-6, etc.  below the mid BOT, then the short BOT.

1.  Break out targets set in pre-open.  These are listed on the BOT PAGE.  Price moves to the short and consolidates.
2. We have the first failure at the mid BOT, and a HL just below the EMA.
3. Bar 1 is a resistor bar near the long BOT, followed by doji bars.  Shorts are entering.
4. A test of the short (lower) BOT results in a failure and a double bottom by b16 and a HL bull at b18.
5. Similar to ES, we see a failure inside the consolidation at the mid bot, but shorting is a trial in patience.
6. The bear channel offers better entries at the EMA failures, and the short BOT.