Chartmaster-CM TRADING: APRIL 2013: WEEK 2 (daily updates)

April 8

Start of a new week and bulls came to play. The key was the early bullish trend line that reversed the bear selling. Price hung around the 20EMA and formed a higher low around bar 35-36. This was the play trend line. Each major bull bar was higher, with the last forming a 50CB.

Price followed the 45 degree from the 50CB (bullish) and created a gap to the EMA (bullish!). The gap continued to each target level (1555 +10 from B35-36) and to the 1362 level (a hourly 50CB target).

The multi-day look on the 60 minute chart shows the break out bar for the bears (also a 50CB). Price consolidated and pushed lower to find buyers and established a multi-day higher low while returning to test the prior break out level.

April 9

The US open was essentially a two leg push away from the 20EMA by the sellers. and a range float to test the prior break out around 1555. Price came back to test the B3 50CB creating a lower high before drifting down the 45 degree trend line from B3. Range bound action.

The second low was interesting. We have , for all practically purposes, a double bottom with a gap to the 1555. The B22 50CB was tested and broke, beginning the nice bull run that steadily gaped away from the 45TL indicating the strength of the move.

A bull 50CB developed at B46 and it was suggested to begin closing longs up around 1567-68. The thought being, a pull back to support around 1563.75-1564 was warranted.

April 10

We started the week saying that the bulls had come to play. They played again today with the 50CB break out working very nicely.

A point about super move days: it can be difficult to enter, as the move does not provide extended pull backs. When you see this, and on the side line, look at the difference (gap) in price and 1. the EMA; and 2. The 50CB or 45TL. The question on a big move day is "where do I put my stop" more than "where do I enter".

The first opportunity was the 50CB test of Bar 1. B3 tested the level but there was no bear support with B4. The 45 degree trend line was the entry consideration. The gap continued to grow showing a strong bull.

the second 50CB developed creating the next opportunity. The bear 45 TL held (price was consolidating) and we see another move up the bull 45 TL and a continued strong gap to the EMA.

A third and fourth 50CB developed, and price came back to test the original trend lines. These are consider the optimal exit points. Other exit points are considered at +8 and +10 points from the original 50CB or the low (high for the bear) immediately preceding the 50CB formation. These exits would give you +8 value around 1576.75, +10 around 1579.75 and the 45 TL exits around 1583 to 1581. The low prior to the first 50CB would yield a +8 around 1573.25 and a +10 around 1575.25.

These are some of the guidelines considered, and each trader must determine their own entries, stops, and targets.

APRIL 11

Let's get to it. Another nice bull day but there were some selling pressures that I assume are profit oriented. If you have a different opinion, so be it. I read the market from the approach: how I feel major players and market makers will react. We had a pull down at the open after favorable news. We can have a lengthy discussion about the effect (if any) of news on the market. I tend to believe the market will "disguise" the real move by using a counter move first. We had a pre-release bullish move followed by selling which drew in new bears. They helped fueled the renewed bull effort, the intended move.

The bar 4 50CB (after bar close) was at the EMA. Read strong bull developing. Consider playing: the EMA cross on a strong bar; the 50CB (if tested) or the 45 trend line; or the first pull back.

The 50CB 45 TL worked very nicely, and we had a second 50Cb by bar 7. This is a strong bull read, and exits will be considered maximized when price returns to the trend line (s). The third 45TL actually provided a higher exit, certainly worth considering a partial if you have mufti-contracts in play.

Then a few "what is the market likely to do".

[12:51] <CM> bulls interested in testing the hod
[12:57] <CM> 91.5 92.5 targets

After the trade reason:
[13:12] <CM> the why price consolidating but had a bullish tone market makers would want last bull $ in before taking profits from a lower high 88.75 is last 50CB and a conservative short in a sell off for profit

[13:21] <CM> btw 91.5 is a 50CB being tested
[13:22] <CM> makes 1591 an aggressive short if it fails
[13:23] <CM> aggressive 1591 conservative (out of current action) at 88.75
[13:24] <CM> 90.25 works too
[13:27] <CM> only YM set a HH others a LH thought: a pb for profit takers. we are consolidating in the 88-92 range

This is where we had the EMA bounce for a second failed break out of the wedge.

[13:27] <x> so what your action?
[13:28] <CM> short known upside risk is 92.-92.5
[13:30] <CM> b17 50cb target 89.5-89

And then, when bulls seemed in command it happened. That 'selling sense" that this had the possibility to push down significantly. The Dick Tracy. (see terms page). essentially. price on the right side drops past the left (the open today).

[13:41] <CM> oh no! could it be? Dick Tracy forming

More short bias, some idle chat, and looking for a move toward 1585-86 area.

Hmm, Idle chat. Perhaps it time to move on. Price? Yep, moved below the open in selling....

FRIDAY 4/12/13

End of the week and a quick look at the charts: plain and "where I want to be". The WIW2B is the visual you need to work toward. My way, your way, another way does not matter. The point: price will (is likely) do certain things at key points in the daily cycle. I like:

Price test of the 50CB's
Price that fails (Bar 9-10 12-13) at a TL and another tool (i.e. the 50CB or EMA)
Price that stalls (Bar 27-28 36-37) at a TL and another tool

Develop your tools and improve your trading.

PLAIN: no clear entry/exits. Just a guess.