HOLD OR FOLD

Sooner or later, it will happen.  Your bias is correct, the market seems ready to follow, and you enter the trade.  Then price sits. Now what?

The amount of time you hold a trade will affect the risk assessed before the trade.  If you are flat or slightly negative, market events can run your stop quickly.  When it doesn't, you hold and hold and a whole new set of psychological issues arise.  Stay with your gut feeling, or take a loss (and at what level).  Look at these scenarios and decide now how it will affect your live trading.  I say live, because you will not get this using Sim.  Sim is used to practice techniques, setups, and your trading software.  You will not see the emotional attachment found in live trading.

1. You take a small loss, then see price move to profit or run.
2. Take a larger loss, but not you stop, and see a profit move or run.
3. See an opportunity to get out, ignore, and price moves for a greater loss.
4. Scale in to adjust your average price, and see it work or see it fail.

These will effect your trading if you do not prepare, and be willing to accept each trade as an independent action.  Do not let a trade, good or bad, affect the next trade.  Take a break, stop trading.  Do not over analyze, but review and see if there were clues for or against the entry.

The trade in question is on the ES chart and marked with a red bar.  The same entry worked later, but the first attempt was a challenge.  Let it go, move on.  There will be another trade.

TODAY:  6E


[09:29] <Chartmaster> mkt open us ES 46-50 targets 6e 4353-4320 both in short term pb's toward lower support. 1345 defined bull mkt for es,however we need a break above psych level 1350 longer term rectangle es 35-50

[09:34] <Chartmaster> aggressive long es 1348 4345 6e


click to enlarge

The upper and lower BO targets (1)  and the aggressive target (2) were added, and the first alert (of many) went out.  The lower target BO is  a first attempt, but considered more acceptable on the 6E.

Longs entered, and provided the second trade.

 [09:48] <Chartmaster> longs in es 6e
[09:51] <Chartmaster> exit 6e 4330 +10

The alert continued as we saw weakness near the top target, or TL support at Trend lines # 3  and # 4 that developed.  #4 allowed us to take an afternoon good TL long, and a great one.


TODAY:  ES

click to enlarge

The ES started with an alert early in the session.  BO targets #1 and #2 were recorded, as well as an new aggressive entry point.  The AEP was our first trade.  A short was productive, just prior to the symmetrical triangle.  The feeling was, price would break higher.  It did, at TL #5, but first showed a retest of the important 1348 level.  A better entry in hindsight, but the long entry was being held.  This was the opportunity cost of the hold trade.  Got out of the hold and took a break.

Another opportunity, same price entry, 55-56 targets hit.  Let each trade stand alone.