TODAY we had a range run, the break out to +5, and...
Price Action (PA) that hovered around the BO-5 for most of the day. Essentially, the best the market had to offer was over by 10 AM EST. One very extended consolidation.
Typical, for BOTs anyway. So what was the play for today? We had Short Break Out Target (SB) support (a failed break out) which implies a range run and attempt to break out the opposite range, in this case the Long Break Out Target (LB).
[08:47] <CM> ES range of interest today: 1507.75-1506.25-1504.5 (rounded to nearest .25)
[09:33] <CM> here we have an LB bo long break out target thus bull favored for a +5 a 2-2.5 point failure is likely to reverse the range
We have the range, a run under way so a BO was favored, and a run to +5 (1512.75) expected with the run likely to exhaust in another +2 to +2.5 (1514.75-1515.25).
The only play after the BO-5 was to short the pullbacks, or long when the PB began to reverse for the high. These small range "rolling" highs-lows are high risk trades, t unless you catch the true break out the returns are minimal in comparison to a good trend run, and the consolidation can take hours before we see a true break out. The better trade would be wait for the break out and enter with trend on a quality pull back.
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