RANGE RUN OFF HIGHS TO TEST THE BREAK OUT 6/24/14

OK, I CONFESS.  It has been a gap in the posting, but again it it more for my study than the study of others, although hits still pile up.  Thanks, hope you find some benefit.

My recent discussions in trading chat was about a break out level (bullish) for the YM, NQ, TF, and ES.  Those levels held last week for some shorting of the markets and was followed by new bullish efforts.

Longs prevailed as we ran to test the daily upper trend line (from December) for ES.  Price this morning was showing signs of weakness, and shorts were eager to apply a little pressure as price staggered in a narrow, sideways path.

As mention in other post and as all traders should be able to recognize, prices do not move in a straight line.  Pushes up/down meet retracing action.  These actions are actually a win-win scenario.  Today was a perfect example.  Bears wanted to test a 50% retrace as a minimum, and even better move would be a full range reversal.  Shorts get to make some money in a bullish market.

The bulls are winners as well.  The dominant trader side will allow these retraces so a better entry price can be obtained for the perceived next big move. So, bears win today and bulls have their pullback for a better price entry.

Bandwagon, late to the party buyers will buy high only to sell lower (reverse the action for bandwagon sellers).  Smart traders will always play into this psychology of "the market" and gladly sell to these buyers or buy from them as they seek to end their misery.

One may ask, if that is the case it would seem logical that traders would soon learn to avoid such costly mistakes, or at least new traders would not follow prior paths of folly.  That would be logical, but fear and greed still dominate. The folly wagon continues with faulty steering and braking well entrenched.


TODAY:

[10:49] <CM> seller interested in YM NQ TF ES ES at upper TL from December

[10:56] <CM> bullish breakout test levels 16630 3800 1180.8 1950.75 a retrace is a sell bias a retrace that establishes a LH approx 50% would offer new buy interest

[11:36] <CM> mid day pull back as mkts trade sideways

the action suggest by the market..

[13:41] <CM> this is pic of the topping where we saw price softening . sell interest, looking for run to 50% min full range run even better


[13:37] <CM> exit all btc range run completed 

 [14:09] <CM> ES daily lower test area around 42.5-43.25 will see how this plays over next few days bears want the test bulls like a better price to enter both win



 [15:21] <CM> well, there is the test of ES 1942.5-43.25 :) time flies